Antwerp
vs
St. Truiden
1 – 4 Full time
Antwerp vs St. Truiden overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Antwerp vs St. Truiden
| Probability | Antwerp | Draw | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.9% | 25.6% | 33.5% |
| Market | 37.8% | 27.3% | 34.9% |
| Final | 38.6% | 26.9% | 34.5% |
| Edge | +3.1% | -1.8% | -1.4% |
Why Antwerp
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.57.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Antwerp below the model: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Antwerp and St. Truiden expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Antwerp and St. Truiden attack and defence ratings
Antwerp
St. Truiden
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Antwerp vs St. Truiden: result vs prediction
Antwerp 1 – 4 St. Truiden
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Genk v SK Beveren — match page
- RAAL La Louvière vs KV Mechelen — team news & stats
- Kortrijk vs Charleroi
- OH Leuven v Standard Liege — match page
- Cercle Brugge vs Lommel United — team news & stats
- Gent vs Club Brugge KV
- Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht — team news & stats
- KVC Westerlo vs Zulte Waregem
Before and after this match
Antwerp vs St. Truiden markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antwerp | 38.6% | 2.59 | +3.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antwerp | 38.6% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| St. Truiden | 34.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.1% |
| No | 35.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Antwerp win | 27.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 52.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Antwerp vs St. Truiden stats
Antwerp and St. Truiden recent form
| Antwerp |
DWWWDL |
| St. Truiden |
LWDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Antwerp and St. Truiden going into this match
St. Truiden record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
Antwerp vs St. Truiden head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Antwerp | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Antwerp | St. Truiden | Belgium Cup | 3-3 |
| 2025-11-02 | St. Truiden | Antwerp | Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Antwerp vs St. Truiden odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.8%, draw 27.3%, away 34.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
| 1xBet | 2.53 | 3.43 | 2.78 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 3.35 | 2.71 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 3.44 | 2.78 |
| SBO | 2.33 | 3.08 | 2.51 |
| Unibet | 2.43 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .