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Brazil Serie B · Full time ·Matchday 27

Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara

2 – 1 Full time

7′Guilherme Costa Marques
12′Geovany Soares
22′João Pedro
25′Giovanni PavaniNicolás Ferreira
38′Bryan Borges Mascarenhas
39′Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira
45′Gustavo Maia da SilvaHenrique
45′Guilherme Costa MarquesYuri
51′José Domingos de Moraes Neto
53′Geovany SoaresCristiano Claudinei Nogueira
61′Vinícius
62′Bryan Borges MascarenhasWendel da Silva Costa
62′Matheus AraujoLenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli
67′João PedroGustavo Coutinho Silva Lopes
68′Daniel Nascimento Peixoto dos SantosKlebert de Oliveira Pereira
73′Melquisedeque Costa De OliveiraLucca Holanda Sampaio Tavares
73′Sávio António AlvesLucas Mugni
89′Luiz Otávio

Referee: G. Bauermann

Atletico Goianiense 53%
Draw 28%
Ceara 20%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 23
2 Shots on target 5
35 Possession % 65
3 Corners 7
18 Fouls 12
4 Saves 0
247 Accurate passes 489

Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico GoianienseDrawCeara
Model58.6%25.9%15.5%
Market50.6%28.1%21.3%
Final52.6%27.5%19.9%
Edge+8.0%-2.2%-5.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico Goianiense

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.77.
  • The market prices Atletico Goianiense below the model: +8.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Goian ↓ / Ceara → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 1 13% 12% 2 12% 9% 3 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Atletico Goianiense and Ceara expected goals

Atletico Goianiense 1.70
Ceara 0.77

Total expected goals: 2.47

Atletico Goianiense and Ceara attack and defence ratings

Atletico Goianiense

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Ceara

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara: result vs prediction

Atletico Goianiense 2 – 1 Ceara

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Brazil Serie B

Before and after this match

Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Goianiense 52.6% 1.90 +8.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.1% 1.81 — —
Both teams to score No 55.0% 1.82 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.1% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.4% 2.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Goianiense52.6%
Draw27.5%
Ceara19.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.9%
Under 2.555.1%
Both teams to scoreYes45.0%
No55.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.1%
12 (either side)72.5%
X2 (draw or away)47.4%
Handicap -1Atletico Goianiense win33.6%
Push (exactly one goal)25.0%
Loss41.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-013.3%
2-012.2%
1-112.2%

Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara stats

Atletico Goianiense and Ceara recent form

newest first
Atletico Goianiense DWWDLD
Ceara WLWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Goianiense and Ceara going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Goianiense record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ceara record

  • They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Atletico Goianiense wins 4Draws 2Ceara wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-09CearaAtletico GoianienseBrazil Serie B0-1
2023-10-01CearaAtletico GoianienseSerie B0-1
2023-06-07Atletico GoianienseCearaSerie B0-3
2022-10-23Atletico GoianienseCearaSerie A1-0
2022-06-26CearaAtletico GoianienseSerie A1-1
2021-11-21Atletico GoianienseCearaSerie A1-1
2021-08-08CearaAtletico GoianienseSerie A0-0
2020-12-13CearaAtletico GoianienseSerie A1-2
2020-08-30Atletico GoianienseCearaSerie A0-2
2016-08-29Atletico GoianienseCearaSerie B2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.6%, draw 28.1%, away 21.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.84 3.30 4.45
1xBet 1.83 3.34 4.39
888Sport 1.83 3.25 4.33
Bet365 1.80 3.30 4.75
BetVictor 1.75 3.30 4.20
Betano 1.85 3.30 4.60
Betfair 1.90 3.30 4.20
Dafabet 1.86 3.40 4.60
Marathonbet 1.83 3.30 4.35
Pinnacle 1.85 3.46 4.59
SBO 1.82 3.12 3.88
Superbet 1.83 3.30 4.30
Unibet 1.86 3.35 4.25
William Hill 1.83 3.25 4.33

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.83 ▼ -0.14
X 3.30 ▲ +0.20
2 4.34 ▲ +0.18

8 snapshots recorded, from .