Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
Fortaleza EC
vs
Avai
1 – 0 Full time
| 42′ | Gabriel Cipriano | ||
| 45′ | ronald falkoskiRyan Gustavo de Lima | ||
| 45′ | Lucas CrispimLuiz Fernando | ||
| 62′ | Jean Lucas FigueiredoLuiz Henrique | ||
| 62′ | Juan MiritelloPaulo Baya | ||
| 65′ | Lucas SashaRodrigo Oliveira dos Santos | ||
| 66′ | Maílton | ||
| 75′ | Zé RicardoKauã Gabriel Pereira Dos Santos | ||
| 75′ | WendersonLeo Chu | ||
| 81′ | Gabriel CiprianoIsaias Pereira Da Silva | ||
| 83′ | João Vitor | ||
| 86′ | Pedro HenriqueNeris |
Fortaleza EC
57%
Draw
27%
Avai
16%
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 2 |
| 518 | Accurate passes | 423 |
Fortaleza EC vs Avai overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortaleza EC vs Avai
| Probability | Fortaleza EC | Draw | Avai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.1% | 30.1% | 18.8% |
| Market | 58.8% | 25.9% | 15.4% |
| Final | 56.9% | 26.9% | 16.2% |
| Edge | -7.7% | +4.2% | +3.5% |
Why Fortaleza EC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.74.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
87%
2+ goals
64%
3+ goals
36%
No goals
13%
Fortaleza EC and Avai expected goals
Fortaleza EC
1.39
Avai
0.74
Total expected goals: 2.14
Fortaleza EC and Avai attack and defence ratings
Fortaleza EC
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
0.78 -22%
Avai
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fortaleza EC vs Avai: result vs prediction
Fortaleza EC 1 – 0 Avai
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fortaleza EC vs Avai markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 56.9% | 1.76 | -7.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.8% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 56.9% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Avai | 16.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.7% |
| No | 59.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.3% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 13.0% |
Fortaleza EC vs Avai stats
Fortaleza EC and Avai recent form
| Fortaleza EC |
WDWDDD |
| Avai |
LLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortaleza EC and Avai going into this match
Fortaleza EC record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avai record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza EC vs Avai head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
4Fortaleza EC wins
2Draws
1Avai wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Avai | Fortaleza EC | Brazil Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-09 | Fortaleza EC | Avai | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2022-06-16 | Avai | Fortaleza EC | Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2019-10-30 | Avai | Fortaleza EC | Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2019-07-13 | Fortaleza EC | Avai | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2018-11-10 | Avai | Fortaleza EC | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2018-07-25 | Fortaleza EC | Avai | Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortaleza EC vs Avai odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.8%, draw 25.9%, away 15.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.58 | 3.50 | 6.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 3.58 | 6.06 |
| 888Sport | 1.57 | 3.50 | 6.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.50 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.70 | 6.90 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.59 | 3.75 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 3.58 | 6.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 3.82 | 6.72 |
| SBO | 1.53 | 3.41 | 5.61 |
| Superbet | 1.57 | 3.65 | 5.80 |
| Unibet | 1.61 | 3.65 | 5.60 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.50 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.58 ▲ +0.01
X
3.58 ▼ -0.12
2
6.03 ▲ +0.23
8 snapshots recorded, from .