Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 26
Novorizontino
vs
Avai
3 – 1 Full time
| 9′ | Madson Ferreira dos Santos | ||
| 24′ | Allyson Aires Dos Santos | ||
| 33′ | Douglas da Silva Teixeira | ||
| 39′ | Robson | ||
| 45′ | Romulo Azevedo Simão | ||
| 45′ | Felipe VizeuIsaias Pereira Da Silva | ||
| 46′ | Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas | ||
| 60′ | Luiz HenriqueLeo Chu | ||
| 60′ | Gabriel CiprianoKauã Gabriel Pereira Dos Santos | ||
| 61′ | Francisco Reidiney Duarte Gomes | ||
| 65′ | Francisco Reidiney Duarte GomesMatheus Henrique Bianqui | ||
| 71′ | Douglas da Silva TeixeiraVinicius Miguel Immig | ||
| 71′ | WendersonZé Ricardo | ||
| 74′ | RobsonCarlos Henrique de Moura Brito | ||
| 74′ | Nicolas Morês da CruzDiego Galo | ||
| 79′ | Madson Ferreira dos SantosAlexis·Alvarino | ||
| 79′ | Romulo Azevedo SimãoJuninho |
Novorizontino
63%
Draw
23%
Avai
13%
Match stats
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 3 | Saves | 5 |
| 396 | Accurate passes | 366 |
Novorizontino vs Avai overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Novorizontino vs Avai
| Probability | Novorizontino | Draw | Avai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.4% | 24.1% | 13.5% |
| Market | 63.7% | 23.2% | 13.1% |
| Final | 63.4% | 23.4% | 13.2% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +0.9% | +0.4% |
Why Novorizontino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
74%
3+ goals
47%
No goals
9%
Novorizontino and Avai expected goals
Novorizontino
1.83
Avai
0.74
Total expected goals: 2.57
Novorizontino and Avai attack and defence ratings
Novorizontino
Attack
1.52 +52%
Defence
0.77 -23%
Avai
Attack
1.01 +1%
Defence
0.93 -7%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Novorizontino vs Avai: result vs prediction
Novorizontino 3 – 1 Avai
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Novorizontino vs Avai markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 63.4% | 1.58 | -1.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 37.6% | 2.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 63.4% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Avai | 13.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.0% |
| No | 55.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win | 37.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 37.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 2-0 | 12.8% | |
| 1-1 | 11.4% |
Novorizontino vs Avai stats
Novorizontino and Avai recent form
| Novorizontino |
WWWDLW |
| Avai |
LWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Novorizontino and Avai going into this match
Novorizontino record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avai record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Novorizontino vs Avai head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
3Novorizontino wins
3Draws
2Avai wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Avai | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 3-3 |
| 2026-04-30 | Novorizontino | Avai | Copa Sul-Sudeste | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-03 | Novorizontino | Avai | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-06 | Avai | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-23 | Novorizontino | Avai | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2024-07-08 | Avai | Novorizontino | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-11 | Avai | Novorizontino | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-24 | Novorizontino | Avai | Serie B | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Novorizontino vs Avai odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.4%, draw 23.3%, away 13.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.47 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.00 | 7.25 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.10 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 3.80 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.20 | 7.65 |
| SBO | 1.42 | 3.68 | 5.80 |
| Superbet | 1.48 | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| Unibet | 1.47 | 4.10 | 7.00 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.80 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.46 ▼ -0.09
X
4.00 ▲ +0.05
2
7.10 ▲ +1.30
12 snapshots recorded, from .