Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 26
Ceara
vs
Sport Recife
2 – 1 Full time
| 40′ | Nicolás Ferreira | ||
| 45′ | Nicolás FerreiraEnzo Valentim Lodovico | ||
| 45′ | Wendel da Silva CostaVinícius | ||
| 58′ | Gabriel Silva RochaLuiz Otávio | ||
| 64′ | JuanClayson Henrique da Silva Vieira | ||
| 73′ | Luiz Otávio | ||
| 74′ | Willian OliveiraBiel | ||
| 75′ | Sávio António AlvesSanchez Costa | ||
| 83′ | Marcelo AjulAugusto Pucci De Freitas | ||
| 83′ | Zé GabrielPedro Victor Martins Silva Costa | ||
| 83′ | Chrystian Amaral Barletta de AlmeidaMarlon Douglas | ||
| 86′ | Enzo Valentim Lodovico | ||
| 88′ | Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira | ||
| 89′ | Matheus AraujoGiovanni Pavani | ||
| 90′ | Marlon Douglas |
Ceara
38%
Draw
30%
Sport Recife
32%
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 21 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 40 | Possession % | 60 |
| 9 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 1 |
| 223 | Accurate passes | 371 |
Ceara vs Sport Recife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ceara vs Sport Recife
| Probability | Ceara | Draw | Sport Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.1% | 28.7% | 40.1% |
| Market | 40.3% | 30.7% | 29.0% |
| Final | 38.0% | 30.2% | 31.8% |
| Edge | -9.1% | -2.0% | +11.1% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
74%
3+ goals
48%
No goals
9%
Ceara and Sport Recife expected goals
Ceara
1.20
Sport Recife
1.40
Total expected goals: 2.60
Ceara and Sport Recife attack and defence ratings
Ceara
Attack
0.90 -10%
Defence
1.21 +21%
Sport Recife
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ceara vs Sport Recife: result vs prediction
Ceara 2 – 1 Sport Recife
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ceara vs Sport Recife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ceara | 38.0% | 2.63 | -9.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ceara | 38.0% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Sport Recife | 31.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ceara win | 13.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 68.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 8.7% |
Ceara vs Sport Recife stats
Ceara and Sport Recife recent form
| Ceara |
LWLLWW |
| Sport Recife |
LWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ceara and Sport Recife going into this match
Ceara record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sport Recife record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ceara vs Sport Recife head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Ceara wins
3Draws
5Sport Recife wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sport Recife | Ceara | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Sport Recife | Ceara | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-10 | Sport Recife | Ceara | Copa do Nordeste | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Ceara | Sport Recife | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-08 | Sport Recife | Ceara | Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-21 | Ceara | Sport Recife | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-11 | Sport Recife | Ceara | Copa do Nordeste | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-28 | Ceara | Sport Recife | Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2023-07-02 | Sport Recife | Ceara | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2023-05-04 | Sport Recife | Ceara | Copa do Nordeste | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ceara vs Sport Recife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.4%, draw 30.0%, away 28.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.24 | 3.15 | 3.25 |
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.04 | 3.22 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.29 | 3.04 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.38 | 3.15 | 3.33 |
| SBO | 2.10 | 2.99 | 2.93 |
| Superbet | 2.22 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
| Unibet | 2.16 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.30 ▲ +0.16
X
3.02 ▼ -0.28
2
3.20 ▼ -0.10
12 snapshots recorded, from .