Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 26
Athletic Club
vs
Vila Nova
5 – 0 Full time
| 19′ | Yago Santos de Andrade | ||
| 32′ | André Luís | ||
| 39′ | Nathan Camargo | ||
| 40′ | Carlos Moisés de Lima | ||
| 42′ | Alexsandro de Souza | ||
| 45′ | Dixon Vera | ||
| 45′ | Nathan CamargoRaphael Guimarães de Paula | ||
| 45′ | Everton GaldinoRyan lima | ||
| 45′ | Igor CariúsJonathan Aparecido de Oliveira da | ||
| 45′ | Yago Santos de AndradeJoao Victor Broad Moreira Guimaraes | ||
| 63′ | Kauan Gabriel Cordeiro LindesRedney | ||
| 63′ | Carlos Moisés de LimaWilinton Aponza Carabali | ||
| 64′ | Dixon Vera | ||
| 65′ | Dixon VeraOtavio Bruno Dos Santos | ||
| 72′ | Tiago Pagnussat | ||
| 74′ | Wilinton Aponza Carabali | ||
| 75′ | Marquinhos GabrielRodrigo Esmeraldo Caixeta Júnior | ||
| 77′ | Marcelo Henrique Laborão dos Santos | ||
| 82′ | André LuísGustavo Puskas Pinheiro Lemos | ||
| 86′ | Felipe Negrucci BerdaguePhilipe Sampaio Azevedo | ||
| 88′ | Wilinton Aponza Carabali | ||
| 90′ | Otavio Bruno Dos Santos |
Athletic Club
33%
Draw
30%
Vila Nova
37%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 6 |
| 309 | Accurate passes | 435 |
Athletic Club vs Vila Nova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Athletic Club vs Vila Nova
| Probability | Athletic Club | Draw | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.2% | 29.6% | 47.1% |
| Market | 35.9% | 30.6% | 33.4% |
| Final | 32.7% | 30.4% | 36.9% |
| Edge | -12.7% | -1.0% | +13.7% |
Why Vila Nova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vila Nova below the model: +13.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
69%
3+ goals
41%
No goals
11%
Athletic Club and Vila Nova expected goals
Athletic Club
0.92
Vila Nova
1.41
Total expected goals: 2.32
Athletic Club and Vila Nova attack and defence ratings
Athletic Club
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Vila Nova
Attack
1.28 +28%
Defence
0.76 -24%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Athletic Club vs Vila Nova: result vs prediction
Athletic Club 5 – 0 Vila Nova
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Athletic Club vs Vila Nova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 36.9% | 2.71 | +13.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 32.7% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| Vila Nova | 36.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.6% |
| No | 53.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 12.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
Athletic Club vs Vila Nova stats
Athletic Club and Vila Nova recent form
| Athletic Club |
LLLWWD |
| Vila Nova |
WDWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Athletic Club and Vila Nova going into this match
Athletic Club record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Vila Nova record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Athletic Club vs Vila Nova head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
0Athletic Club wins
2Draws
1Vila Nova wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Vila Nova | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-09 | Vila Nova | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-07 | Athletic Club | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Athletic Club vs Vila Nova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.9%, draw 30.6%, away 33.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.56 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
| 1xBet | 2.54 | 3.00 | 2.84 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.70 | 2.97 | 2.69 |
| Pinnacle | 2.85 | 3.07 | 2.77 |
| SBO | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.65 |
| Superbet | 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.82 |
| Unibet | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.56 ▲ +0.26
X
3.00 ▼ -0.15
2
2.75 ▼ -0.35
10 snapshots recorded, from .