Nautico Recife
vs
Athletic Club
2 – 1 Full time
Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club
| Probability | Nautico Recife | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 32.7% | 26.3% |
| Market | 45.8% | 29.3% | 24.9% |
| Final | 44.6% | 30.2% | 25.2% |
| Edge | -4.8% | +3.4% | +1.4% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nautico Recife and Athletic Club expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.04
Nautico Recife and Athletic Club attack and defence ratings
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club: result vs prediction
Nautico Recife 2 – 1 Athletic Club
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nautico Recife | 44.6% | 2.24 | -4.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nautico Recife | 44.6% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Athletic Club | 25.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.6% |
| No | 58.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nautico Recife win | 18.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 14.3% | |
| 1-0 | 13.8% |
Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club stats
Nautico Recife and Athletic Club recent form
| Nautico Recife |
DWDDDW |
| Athletic Club |
LLWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nautico Recife and Athletic Club going into this match
Nautico Recife record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Athletic Club | Nautico Recife | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-21 | Nautico Recife | Athletic Club | Serie C | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.8%, draw 29.3%, away 24.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.85 |
| 1xBet | 2.06 | 3.12 | 3.73 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.13 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 3.30 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.04 | 3.12 | 3.72 |
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | 3.14 | 3.98 |
| SBO | 1.87 | 3.04 | 3.49 |
| Superbet | 2.02 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| Unibet | 1.98 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .