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Brazil Serie B · Full time ·Matchday 24

Athletic Club vs Novorizontino

1 – 4 Full time

Estádio Joaquim Portugal, Minas GeraisReferee: S. Sampaio

Athletic Club 31%
Draw 32%
Novorizontino 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Athletic Club vs Novorizontino overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Athletic Club vs Novorizontino

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAthletic ClubDrawNovorizontino
Model29.4%34.5%36.1%
Market31.8%31.6%36.6%
Final31.2%32.3%36.4%
Edge-2.4%+2.9%-0.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Athletic Club ↓ / Novorizontino → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 16% 14% 1 12% 15% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 84%
2+ goals 58%
3+ goals 29%
No goals 16%

Athletic Club and Novorizontino expected goals

Athletic Club 0.88
Novorizontino 1.01

Total expected goals: 1.89

Athletic Club and Novorizontino attack and defence ratings

Athletic Club

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Novorizontino

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 0.72 -28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Athletic Club vs Novorizontino: result vs prediction

Athletic Club 1 – 4 Novorizontino

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Brazil Serie B

Before and after this match

Athletic Club vs Novorizontino markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Novorizontino 36.4% 2.74 -0.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 70.7% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score No 61.5% 1.63 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 68.8% 1.45 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.9% 1.56 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Athletic Club31.2%
Draw32.3%
Novorizontino36.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.529.3%
Under 2.570.7%
Both teams to scoreYes38.5%
No61.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.6%
12 (either side)67.7%
X2 (draw or away)68.8%
Handicap -1Novorizontino win14.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss63.9%
Correct score (top 3)0-016.5%
1-114.8%
0-113.9%

Athletic Club vs Novorizontino stats

Athletic Club and Novorizontino recent form

newest first
Athletic Club LWWDWD
Novorizontino WDLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Athletic Club and Novorizontino going into this match

league record before kick-off

Athletic Club record

  • They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Novorizontino record

  • They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Athletic Club vs Novorizontino head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

0Athletic Club wins 0Draws 3Novorizontino wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19NovorizontinoAthletic ClubBrazil Serie B2-1
2025-09-19NovorizontinoAthletic ClubBrazil Serie B1-0
2025-05-17Athletic ClubNovorizontinoBrazil Serie B0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Athletic Club vs Novorizontino odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.8%, draw 31.6%, away 36.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.92 2.94 2.58
1xBet 2.91 2.91 2.55
Bet365 3.20 3.00 2.45
BetVictor 2.80 2.90 2.45
Betano 3.00 2.95 2.60
Betfair 2.90 3.00 2.50
Dafabet 3.10 3.00 2.55
Marathonbet 2.92 2.91 2.54
Pinnacle 3.07 2.99 2.64
SBO 2.82 2.85 2.34
Superbet 3.00 2.90 2.50
Unibet 2.80 3.05 2.55
William Hill 3.00 2.80 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.92 ▲ +0.02
X 2.94 ▼ -0.06
2 2.54 ▼ -0.06

6 snapshots recorded, from .