Cuiaba
vs
Goias
1 – 1 Full time
Cuiaba vs Goias overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cuiaba vs Goias
| Probability | Cuiaba | Draw | Goias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.5% | 32.8% | 18.7% |
| Market | 41.2% | 32.1% | 26.7% |
| Final | 43.0% | 32.3% | 24.7% |
| Edge | +7.3% | +0.7% | -8.1% |
Why Cuiaba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.65.
- The market prices Cuiaba below the model: +7.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cuiaba and Goias expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.86
Cuiaba and Goias attack and defence ratings
Cuiaba
Goias
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cuiaba vs Goias: result vs prediction
Cuiaba 1 – 1 Goias
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cuiaba vs Goias markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 43.0% | 2.33 | +7.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 43.0% |
| Draw | 32.3% | |
| Goias | 24.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.8% |
| No | 65.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cuiaba win | 22.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 51.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.6% |
| 0-0 | 16.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.5% |
Cuiaba vs Goias stats
Cuiaba and Goias recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cuiaba and Goias going into this match
Cuiaba record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Goias record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cuiaba vs Goias head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Goias | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Cuiaba | Goias | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Goias | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cuiaba vs Goias odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.2%, draw 32.1%, away 26.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.34 | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| 1xBet | 2.26 | 2.89 | 3.50 |
| 888Sport | 2.25 | 2.75 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 2.80 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 2.88 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 2.87 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.29 | 2.95 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.24 | 2.89 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 2.98 | 3.68 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 2.83 | 3.26 |
| Superbet | 2.25 | 2.87 | 3.45 |
| Unibet | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 2.75 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .