Garuda Lions
Today
Brazil Serie B · Full time ·Matchday 24

Sport Recife vs America Mineiro

3 – 0 Full time

Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, RecifeReferee: D. Serafim

Sport Recife 58%
Draw 25%
America Mineiro 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Sport Recife vs America Mineiro overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sport Recife vs America Mineiro

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySport RecifeDrawAmerica Mineiro
Model63.1%23.4%13.5%
Market56.6%25.4%18.0%
Final58.2%24.9%16.9%
Edge+6.6%-2.0%-4.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Sport Recife

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Sport Recife below the model: +6.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sport Recife ↓ / America Mineir → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 12% 11% 2 12% 10% 3 8% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Sport Recife and America Mineiro expected goals

Sport Recife 1.91
America Mineiro 0.77

Total expected goals: 2.68

Sport Recife and America Mineiro attack and defence ratings

Sport Recife

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 1.06 +6%

America Mineiro

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 1.37 +37%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sport Recife vs America Mineiro: result vs prediction

Sport Recife 3 – 0 America Mineiro

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Brazil Serie B

Before and after this match

Sport Recife vs America Mineiro markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sport Recife 58.2% 1.72 +6.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.2% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score No 53.1% 1.88 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.1% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Sport Recife win 38.8% 2.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sport Recife58.2%
Draw24.9%
America Mineiro16.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%
Both teams to scoreYes46.9%
No53.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.1%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)41.8%
Handicap -1Sport Recife win38.8%
Push (exactly one goal)24.4%
Loss36.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.5%
1-012.0%
1-111.1%

Sport Recife vs America Mineiro stats

Sport Recife and America Mineiro recent form

newest first
Sport Recife LWWDDD
America Mineiro LLLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sport Recife and America Mineiro going into this match

league record before kick-off

Sport Recife record

  • They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

America Mineiro record

  • They have won 3 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sport Recife vs America Mineiro head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Sport Recife wins 3Draws 5America Mineiro wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18America MineiroSport RecifeBrazil Serie B0-0
2024-10-29America MineiroSport RecifeSerie B2-1
2024-07-13Sport RecifeAmerica MineiroSerie B1-1
2021-11-11Sport RecifeAmerica MineiroSerie A2-3
2021-07-19America MineiroSport RecifeSerie A0-1
2019-09-21Sport RecifeAmerica MineiroSerie B0-2
2019-05-19America MineiroSport RecifeSerie B1-2
2018-08-23Sport RecifeAmerica MineiroSerie A0-2
2018-04-15America MineiroSport RecifeSerie A3-0
2016-11-26America MineiroSport RecifeSerie A2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sport Recife vs America Mineiro odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.6%, draw 25.4%, away 18.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.66 3.65 5.20
1xBet 1.66 3.64 5.10
Bet365 1.62 3.75 5.25
BetVictor 1.62 3.50 5.00
Betano 1.72 3.85 5.50
Betfair 1.62 3.70 5.00
Dafabet 1.67 3.80 5.40
Marathonbet 1.64 3.64 5.15
Pinnacle 1.68 3.74 5.53
SBO 1.58 3.49 4.77
Superbet 1.64 3.65 5.00
Unibet 1.60 3.80 5.40
William Hill 1.65 3.40 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.64 ▼ -0.03
X 3.65 ▲ +0.07
2 5.15 ▲ +0.15

6 snapshots recorded, from .