Novorizontino
vs
Sport Recife
2 – 1 Full time
Novorizontino vs Sport Recife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Novorizontino vs Sport Recife
| Probability | Novorizontino | Draw | Sport Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.2% | 24.8% | 17.0% |
| Market | 54.5% | 27.2% | 18.3% |
| Final | 55.5% | 26.6% | 18.0% |
| Edge | +3.7% | -2.4% | -1.3% |
Why Novorizontino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.90.
- The market prices Novorizontino below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Novorizontino and Sport Recife expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Novorizontino and Sport Recife attack and defence ratings
Novorizontino
Sport Recife
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Novorizontino vs Sport Recife: result vs prediction
Novorizontino 2 – 1 Sport Recife
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Novorizontino vs Sport Recife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 55.5% | 1.80 | +3.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 55.5% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Sport Recife | 18.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win | 34.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 41.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-0 | 11.0% | |
| 1-0 | 10.9% |
Novorizontino vs Sport Recife stats
Novorizontino and Sport Recife recent form
| Novorizontino |
WWDLWL |
| Sport Recife |
WLWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Novorizontino and Sport Recife going into this match
Novorizontino record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sport Recife record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Novorizontino vs Sport Recife head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Sport Recife | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-11 | Novorizontino | Sport Recife | Serie B | 1-3 |
| 2024-06-25 | Sport Recife | Novorizontino | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2023-08-05 | Sport Recife | Novorizontino | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-30 | Novorizontino | Sport Recife | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2022-08-30 | Sport Recife | Novorizontino | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2022-05-18 | Novorizontino | Sport Recife | Serie B | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Novorizontino vs Sport Recife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.5%, draw 27.2%, away 18.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 3.40 | 5.07 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.40 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.45 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.55 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.41 | 5.64 |
| SBO | 1.62 | 3.28 | 4.38 |
| Superbet | 1.70 | 3.45 | 4.90 |
| Unibet | 1.72 | 3.55 | 4.90 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .