Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 25
Vila Nova
vs
Ceara
2 – 0 Full time
| 16′ | Breno Augusto | ||
| 45′ | Breno AugustoWillian Formiga | ||
| 46′ | RichardsonVinicius Zanocelo | ||
| 46′ | Lucas MugniMatheus Araujo | ||
| 53′ | Dudu Dos Santos | ||
| 54′ | Júlio César | ||
| 71′ | Julio CesarVina | ||
| 72′ | M. N. Ferreira BerrondoLenny Lobato | ||
| 73′ | Marquinhos GabrielDodo | ||
| 73′ | Everton GaldinoEmerson Urso | ||
| 75′ | Andre Luis | ||
| 78′ | João Vieira | ||
| 79′ | DuduWillian Maranhao | ||
| 79′ | Joao VieiraNathan Camargo | ||
| 84′ | Enzo LodovicoAloisio | ||
| 90′ | Richard | ||
| 90′ | Vinicius Zanocelo |
Vila Nova
52%
Draw
27%
Ceara
21%
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 5 |
| 241 | Accurate passes | 265 |
Vila Nova vs Ceara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vila Nova vs Ceara
| Probability | Vila Nova | Draw | Ceara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.8% | 23.9% | 14.3% |
| Market | 48.6% | 28.7% | 22.7% |
| Final | 51.9% | 27.5% | 20.6% |
| Edge | +13.3% | -4.8% | -8.5% |
Why Vila Nova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.80.
- The market prices Vila Nova below the model: +13.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
76%
3+ goals
50%
No goals
8%
Vila Nova and Ceara expected goals
Vila Nova
1.88
Ceara
0.80
Total expected goals: 2.67
Vila Nova and Ceara attack and defence ratings
Vila Nova
Attack
1.25 +25%
Defence
0.84 -16%
Ceara
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
1.17 +17%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vila Nova vs Ceara: result vs prediction
Vila Nova 2 – 0 Ceara
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- Goias vs São Bernardo — team news & stats
- Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club
- Novorizontino v Sport Recife — match page
- Botafogo SP vs Cuiaba — team news & stats
- Avai vs Atletico Goianiense
- America Mineiro v Ponte Preta — match page
- CRB vs Criciuma — team news & stats
- Fortaleza EC v Operario-PR — match page
Before and after this match
Vila Nova vs Ceara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 51.9% | 1.93 | +13.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.1% | 2.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 51.9% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Ceara | 20.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.5% |
| No | 52.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win | 37.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 38.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 1-1 | 11.4% |
Vila Nova vs Ceara stats
Vila Nova and Ceara recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vila Nova and Ceara going into this match
Vila Nova record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Ceara record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vila Nova vs Ceara head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Vila Nova wins
2Draws
5Ceara wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Ceara | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B | 3-3 |
| 2024-09-22 | Ceara | Vila Nova | Serie B | 4-0 |
| 2024-06-10 | Vila Nova | Ceara | Serie B | 3-2 |
| 2023-11-18 | Vila Nova | Ceara | Serie B | 3-1 |
| 2023-07-20 | Ceara | Vila Nova | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2017-10-03 | Ceara | Vila Nova | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2017-06-21 | Vila Nova | Ceara | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2016-11-12 | Ceara | Vila Nova | Serie B | 2-3 |
| 2016-07-23 | Vila Nova | Ceara | Serie B | 3-4 |
| 2014-09-30 | Vila Nova | Ceara | Serie B | 1-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vila Nova vs Ceara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.6%, draw 28.7%, away 22.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.88 | 3.25 | 4.35 |
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.18 | 4.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.13 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.25 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.25 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.94 | 3.35 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.18 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.28 | 4.59 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.01 | 3.68 |
| Superbet | 1.92 | 3.25 | 4.00 |
| Unibet | 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.92 ▲ +0.06
X
3.25 ▼ -0.09
2
4.10 ▼ -0.08
11 snapshots recorded, from .