São Bernardo
vs
Nautico Recife
1 – 1 Full time
São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife
| Probability | São Bernardo | Draw | Nautico Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.2% | 29.4% | 28.4% |
| Market | 42.6% | 29.3% | 28.1% |
| Final | 42.5% | 29.3% | 28.2% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +0.1% | +0.3% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
São Bernardo and Nautico Recife expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
São Bernardo and Nautico Recife attack and defence ratings
São Bernardo
Nautico Recife
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife: result vs prediction
São Bernardo 1 – 1 Nautico Recife
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | São Bernardo | 42.5% | 2.35 | -0.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | São Bernardo | 42.5% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Nautico Recife | 28.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.0% |
| No | 49.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | São Bernardo win | 20.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 57.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | |
| 0-0 | 9.7% |
São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife stats
São Bernardo and Nautico Recife recent form
| São Bernardo |
DLWLLD |
| Nautico Recife |
WDDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
São Bernardo and Nautico Recife going into this match
São Bernardo record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Nautico Recife record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Nautico Recife | São Bernardo | Brazil Serie B | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.5%, draw 29.6%, away 28.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.26 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| 1xBet | 2.18 | 3.12 | 3.40 |
| 888Sport | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.26 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 3.12 | 3.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.21 | 3.55 |
| SBO | 2.21 | 2.98 | 2.92 |
| Superbet | 2.22 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
| Unibet | 2.18 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 2.90 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .