Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
Vila Nova
vs
Goias
2 – 0 Full time
| 11′ | Lucas Ribeiro | ||
| 14′ | João Pedro Vieira | ||
| 21′ | Luis Fellipe Campos Doria | ||
| 36′ | Hayner | ||
| 45′ | Douglas Mendes | ||
| 45′ | Eduardo Dos Santos | ||
| 45′ | Ryan limaEverton Galdino | ||
| 46′ | Bruno Xavier | ||
| 64′ | Luiz Felipe Clemente de AlmeidaCarlos Eduardo Amaral Pereira de Castro | ||
| 64′ | Wellington RatoLucas Lima | ||
| 67′ | Hayner | ||
| 68′ | André Luís | ||
| 71′ | João Paulo Ferreira LourençoAdilson dos Anjos Oliveira | ||
| 72′ | Ramon MenezesMarcos Vinicius | ||
| 76′ | André Luís | ||
| 78′ | Lucas RodriguesJean Carlos | ||
| 78′ | Marquinhos GabrielRaphael Guimarães de Paula | ||
| 78′ | Eduardo Dos SantosWillian Maranhão | ||
| 83′ | João Pedro VieiraHigor Meritão | ||
| 85′ | André LuísEmerson |
Vila Nova
47%
Draw
31%
Goias
22%
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 35 | Possession % | 65 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 6 |
| 181 | Accurate passes | 413 |
Vila Nova vs Goias overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vila Nova vs Goias
| Probability | Vila Nova | Draw | Goias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.7% | 29.6% | 21.7% |
| Market | 46.2% | 31.5% | 22.3% |
| Final | 46.8% | 31.0% | 22.1% |
| Edge | +2.5% | -1.9% | -0.6% |
Why Vila Nova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vila Nova below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
68%
3+ goals
40%
No goals
11%
Vila Nova and Goias expected goals
Vila Nova
1.42
Goias
0.86
Total expected goals: 2.28
Vila Nova and Goias attack and defence ratings
Vila Nova
Attack
1.16 +16%
Defence
1.13 +13%
Goias
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vila Nova vs Goias: result vs prediction
Vila Nova 2 – 0 Goias
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vila Nova vs Goias markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 46.8% | 2.14 | +2.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 46.8% |
| Draw | 31.0% | |
| Goias | 22.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.1% |
| No | 54.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 51.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 13.2% | |
| 0-0 | 11.4% |
Vila Nova vs Goias stats
Vila Nova and Goias recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vila Nova and Goias going into this match
Vila Nova record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Goias record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vila Nova vs Goias head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Vila Nova wins
3Draws
2Goias wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Goias | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Goias | Vila Nova | Goiano - 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Vila Nova | Goias | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-17 | Goias | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-16 | Vila Nova | Goias | Goiano - 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-09 | Goias | Vila Nova | Goiano - 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-02 | Vila Nova | Goias | Goiano - 1 | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-13 | Goias | Vila Nova | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2024-06-23 | Vila Nova | Goias | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-24 | Goias | Vila Nova | Copa Verde | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vila Nova vs Goias odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.0%, draw 30.9%, away 23.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.00 | 3.15 | 3.95 |
| 1xBet | 2.03 | 2.94 | 4.16 |
| 888Sport | 2.00 | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.20 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.05 | 3.15 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 2.94 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.08 | 3.05 | 4.34 |
| SBO | 2.04 | 2.83 | 3.50 |
| Superbet | 2.02 | 3.05 | 3.90 |
| Unibet | 2.04 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 2.80 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.00 —
X
2.94 ▼ -0.14
2
4.16 ▲ +0.23
10 snapshots recorded, from .