Brazil Serie B · 2026-09-14T22:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 28

Botafogo SP vs Goias

1 – 3 Full time

18′			Hygor
27′			Jean Carlos
42′			Lucas Rodrigues
45′			Matheus SalesJosé Hugo Sousa dos Santos
45′			Arthur CaíkeThiago Henrique Moraes
50′			Tadeu Antonio Ferreira
56′			Carlos Eduardo de Sousa Leopoldino
62′			MorelliWesley Santos
62′			Kelvin Giacobe·Alves dos SantosMarco Antonio de Freitas Batistussi
72′			Wesley Santos
73′			Filipe Machado
73′			Gabriel de Souza Inocencio
74′			Pedro Junqueira de OliveiraDanilo Cunha
79′			Gabriel de Souza InocencioJonathan
82′			Carlos Eduardo de Sousa LeopoldinoCarlos Eduardo Amaral Pereira de Castro
82′			João Paulo Ferreira LourençoAdilson dos Anjos Oliveira
83′			Adilson dos Anjos Oliveira
87′			Filipe MachadoGuilherme Baldoria de Camargo
87′			Jean CarlosGeirton Marques Aires
89′			Marco Antonio de Freitas Batistussi
90′			Jonathan

Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao PretoReferee: A. Gomes Stefano

Botafogo SP

41%

Draw

33%

Goias

27%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

14	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	6
44	Possession %	56
6	Corners	7
15	Fouls	10
3	Offsides	1
3	Saves	2
255	Accurate passes	338

Botafogo SP vs Goias overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Botafogo SP vs Goias

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Botafogo SP	Draw	Goias
Model	42.2%	31.9%	25.9%
Market	39.9%	33.0%	27.1%
Final	40.5%	32.7%	26.8%
Edge	+2.3%	-1.1%	-1.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Botafogo SP

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.90.
The market prices Botafogo SP below the model: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

87%

2+ goals

64%

3+ goals

36%

No goals

13%

Botafogo SP and Goias expected goals

Botafogo SP

1.22

Goias

0.90

Total expected goals: 2.12

Botafogo SP and Goias attack and defence ratings

Botafogo SP

Attack

0.96 -4%

Defence

1.26 +26%

Goias

Attack

0.75 -25%

Defence

0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Botafogo SP vs Goias: result vs prediction

Botafogo SP 1 – 3 Goias

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Brazil Serie B

Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma — team news & stats · 2026-09-13
Juventude vs Athletic Club · 2026-09-13
Fortaleza EC v Ceara — match page · 2026-09-13
Novorizontino vs Cuiaba — team news & stats · 2026-09-13
America Mineiro vs São Bernardo · 2026-09-14
Avai vs Vila Nova — team news & stats · 2026-09-15
Londrina vs Ponte Preta · 2026-09-15
Nautico Recife v Operario-PR — match page · 2026-09-15

Before and after this match

Botafogo SP, previous: Botafogo SP v Novorizontino analysis
Botafogo SP, next: Athletic Club vs Botafogo SP: odds and pick
Goias, previous: Vila Nova v Goias analysis
Goias, next: Goias – Avai, 2026-09-20

Botafogo SP vs Goias markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Botafogo SP	40.5%	2.47	+2.3%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	64.3%	1.56	—	—
Both teams to score	No	56.8%	1.76	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	73.2%	1.37	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	57.8%	1.73	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Botafogo SP	40.5%
	Draw	32.7%
	Goias	26.8%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	35.7%
	Under 2.5	64.3%
Both teams to score	Yes	43.2%
	No	56.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	73.2%
	12 (either side)	67.3%
	X2 (draw or away)	59.5%
Handicap -1	Botafogo SP win	19.2%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.0%
	Loss	57.8%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.5%
	1-0	13.3%
	0-0	13.3%

Botafogo SP vs Goias stats

Botafogo SP and Goias recent form

newest first

Botafogo SP	LLLLDW
Goias	LLWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Botafogo SP and Goias going into this match

league record before kick-off

Botafogo SP record

They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Goias record

They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Botafogo SP vs Goias head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2Botafogo SP wins 0Draws 3Goias wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-16	Goias	Botafogo SP	Brazil Serie B	1-0
2025-08-30	Goias	Botafogo SP	Brazil Serie B	2-3
2025-04-28	Botafogo SP	Goias	Brazil Serie B	0-1
2024-09-09	Botafogo SP	Goias	Serie B	1-0
2024-05-18	Goias	Botafogo SP	Serie B	4-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Botafogo SP vs Goias odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.9%, draw 33.0%, away 27.1%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.33	2.82	3.55
Bet365	2.35	2.88	3.50
BetVictor	2.25	2.80	3.25
Betano	2.35	2.95	3.40
Betfair	2.25	2.88	3.50
Marathonbet	2.31	2.81	3.44
Pinnacle	2.41	2.86	3.64
SBO	2.18	2.78	3.01
William Hill	2.38	2.70	3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.33 ▲ +0.03

X 2.82 ▼ -0.07

2 3.44 ▲ +0.04

8 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-11T08:10:02Z.