Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 29
Athletic Club
vs
Botafogo SP
1 – 1 Full time
| 4′ | Kauan Gabriel Cordeiro Lindes | ||
| 25′ | Hygor | ||
| 32′ | Yuri Felipe Santos da Conceição | ||
| 39′ | HygorArthur Caíke | ||
| 45′ | Yuri Felipe Santos da ConceiçãoLeandro Maciel | ||
| 50′ | Leandro Maciel | ||
| 59′ | Wallace | ||
| 65′ | Maswel Ananias SilvaOtavio Bruno Dos Santos | ||
| 65′ | Felipe Negrucci BerdagueYago Santos de Andrade | ||
| 70′ | WallaceJonathan | ||
| 75′ | João Miguel | ||
| 78′ | Kauan Gabriel Cordeiro LindesDixon Vera | ||
| 78′ | João MiguelGian Franco Cabezas Rodriguez | ||
| 80′ | Kelvin Giacobe·Alves dos SantosJosé Hugo Sousa dos Santos | ||
| 80′ | Pedro HenriqueMarco Antonio de Freitas Batistussi | ||
| 85′ | Wilinton Aponza CarabaliGustavo Silva | ||
| 90′ | Dixon Vera |
Athletic Club
47%
Draw
29%
Botafogo SP
24%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 410 | Accurate passes | 256 |
Athletic Club vs Botafogo SP overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Athletic Club vs Botafogo SP
| Probability | Athletic Club | Draw | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.8% | 21.2% | 14.9% |
| Market | 41.4% | 31.3% | 27.3% |
| Final | 47.0% | 28.8% | 24.2% |
| Edge | +22.5% | -10.1% | -12.4% |
Why Athletic Club
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Athletic Club below the model: +22.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
Athletic Club and Botafogo SP expected goals
Athletic Club
2.18
Botafogo SP
0.98
Total expected goals: 3.16
Athletic Club and Botafogo SP attack and defence ratings
Athletic Club
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
1.09 +9%
Botafogo SP
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.39 +39%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Athletic Club vs Botafogo SP: result vs prediction
Athletic Club 1 – 1 Botafogo SP
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Athletic Club vs Botafogo SP markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 47.0% | 2.13 | +22.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win | 41.4% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 47.0% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Botafogo SP | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win | 41.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 36.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.1% |
| 1-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Athletic Club vs Botafogo SP stats
Athletic Club and Botafogo SP recent form
| Athletic Club |
WLWLLL |
| Botafogo SP |
LLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Athletic Club and Botafogo SP going into this match
Athletic Club record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Botafogo SP record
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club vs Botafogo SP head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
3Athletic Club wins
0Draws
0Botafogo SP wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Botafogo SP | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-14 | Athletic Club | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-12 | Botafogo SP | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Athletic Club vs Botafogo SP odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 31.5%, away 27.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.24 | 2.93 | 3.43 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 2.92 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.22 | 2.93 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.33 | 3.00 | 3.61 |
| SBO | 2.13 | 2.80 | 3.08 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 2.80 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.25 ▼ -0.10
X
2.96 ▲ +0.08
2
3.40 ▲ +0.08
10 snapshots recorded, from .