Brazil Serie B · 2026-09-20T21:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 29

Londrina vs Fortaleza EC

1 – 2 Full time

34′			Heron
45′			Herbert Mateus Almeida De Oliveira
65′			ronald falkoskiNeris
65′			Chico da CostaNathan Fogaça
68′			Guilherme Maciel DantasOswaldo da Silva Nascimento
68′			Joao ConiGuilherme Cachoeira Silveira
73′			Pierre
74′			Igor Ruan Sousa dos Santos
77′			João Vitor de Souza MartinsLucas Marques
77′			Nino ParaíbaAndré Dhominique
84′			Igor Ruan Sousa dos SantosWilliam Pottker
88′			Neris
90′			Vitor FerreiraRyan Gustavo de Lima
90′			Lucas Marques
90′			MaíltonLuan Freitas
90′			William Pottker

Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias, LondrinaReferee: Luiz Augusto Silveira Tisne

Londrina

36%

Draw

31%

Fortaleza EC

34%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

19	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	2
46	Possession %	54
8	Corners	2
18	Fouls	13
3	Offsides	0
1	Saves	2
339	Accurate passes	406

Londrina vs Fortaleza EC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Londrina vs Fortaleza EC

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Londrina	Draw	Fortaleza EC
Model	44.2%	31.1%	24.7%
Market	32.6%	30.9%	36.5%
Final	35.5%	30.9%	33.5%
Edge	+11.6%	+0.2%	-11.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Londrina

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.90.
The market prices Londrina below the model: +11.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

87%

2+ goals

65%

3+ goals

37%

No goals

13%

Londrina and Fortaleza EC expected goals

Londrina

1.29

Fortaleza EC

0.90

Total expected goals: 2.18

Londrina and Fortaleza EC attack and defence ratings

Londrina

Attack

1.36 +36%

Defence

0.97 -3%

Fortaleza EC

Attack

0.96 -4%

Defence

0.72 -28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Londrina vs Fortaleza EC: result vs prediction

Londrina 1 – 2 Fortaleza EC

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Brazil Serie B

Vila Nova vs America Mineiro · 2026-09-18
Ceara v Novorizontino — match page · 2026-09-18
São Bernardo vs Atletico Goianiense — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
Sport Recife vs Juventude · 2026-09-19
Athletic Club v Botafogo SP — match page · 2026-09-19
Ponte Preta vs CRB — team news & stats · 2026-09-20
Goias vs Avai · 2026-09-20
Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife · 2026-09-22

Before and after this match

Londrina, previous: Londrina vs Ponte Preta prediction
Londrina, next: Vila Nova v Londrina analysis
Fortaleza EC, previous: Fortaleza EC vs Ceara: odds and pick
Fortaleza EC, next: Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club prediction

Londrina vs Fortaleza EC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Londrina	35.5%	2.81	+11.6%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	62.7%	1.60	—	—
Both teams to score	No	55.8%	1.79	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	69.1%	1.45	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	55.8%	1.79	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Londrina	35.5%
	Draw	30.9%
	Fortaleza EC	33.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	37.3%
	Under 2.5	62.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	44.2%
	No	55.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	66.5%
	12 (either side)	69.1%
	X2 (draw or away)	64.5%
Handicap -1	Londrina win	20.9%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.3%
	Loss	55.8%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.3%
	1-0	13.2%
	0-0	12.6%

Londrina vs Fortaleza EC stats

Londrina and Fortaleza EC recent form

newest first

Londrina	WWLDLD
Fortaleza EC	DWWDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Londrina and Fortaleza EC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Londrina record

They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

Fortaleza EC record

They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Londrina vs Fortaleza EC head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

0Londrina wins 1Draws 2Fortaleza EC wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-23	Fortaleza EC	Londrina	Brazil Serie B	3-0
2018-08-25	Fortaleza EC	Londrina	Serie B	2-1
2018-05-01	Londrina	Fortaleza EC	Serie B	1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Londrina vs Fortaleza EC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.6%, draw 30.9%, away 36.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.84	2.94	2.54
Bet365	2.90	3.00	2.62
BetVictor	2.70	3.00	2.45
Betano	2.92	3.00	2.60
Betfair	2.80	3.10	2.45
Marathonbet	2.84	2.94	2.54
Pinnacle	2.97	3.06	2.67
SBO	2.68	2.90	2.42
William Hill	2.88	2.80	2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.84 ▼ -0.16

X 3.00 ▲ +0.04

2 2.54 ▲ +0.14

8 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-17T08:10:02Z.