Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
Vila Nova
vs
Londrina
2 – 0 Full time
| 29′ | Kaue Leonardo De Souza Prado | ||
| 33′ | Caio César Rodrigues Souza | ||
| 45′ | Everton Galdino | ||
| 50′ | Jonathan Aparecido de Oliveira da | ||
| 54′ | Joao ConiLucas Marques | ||
| 54′ | Tárik Michel Kedes BoschettiGuilherme Cachoeira Silveira | ||
| 54′ | Kaue Leonardo De Souza PradoNino Paraíba | ||
| 60′ | Guilherme Maciel DantasOswaldo da Silva Nascimento | ||
| 61′ | HaynerNathan Camargo | ||
| 66′ | Nino ParaíbaJoão Vitor | ||
| 68′ | João Vitor de Souza Martins | ||
| 72′ | André LuísLincoln | ||
| 72′ | Everton GaldinoBruno Xavier | ||
| 83′ | JandersonEmerson | ||
| 83′ | Eduardo Dos SantosWillian Maranhão |
Vila Nova
56%
Draw
26%
Londrina
18%
Match stats
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 4 | Saves | 7 |
| 401 | Accurate passes | 285 |
Vila Nova vs Londrina overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vila Nova vs Londrina
| Probability | Vila Nova | Draw | Londrina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.4% | 27.6% | 25.9% |
| Market | 59.0% | 25.0% | 16.0% |
| Final | 55.9% | 25.7% | 18.5% |
| Edge | -12.6% | +2.6% | +10.0% |
Why Vila Nova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
76%
3+ goals
50%
No goals
8%
Vila Nova and Londrina expected goals
Vila Nova
1.56
Londrina
1.11
Total expected goals: 2.67
Vila Nova and Londrina attack and defence ratings
Vila Nova
Attack
1.12 +12%
Defence
0.89 -11%
Londrina
Attack
1.30 +30%
Defence
1.07 +7%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vila Nova vs Londrina: result vs prediction
Vila Nova 2 – 0 Londrina
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vila Nova vs Londrina markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 55.9% | 1.79 | -12.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.5% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 55.9% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Londrina | 18.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% |
| No | 45.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win | 24.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 53.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
Vila Nova vs Londrina stats
Vila Nova and Londrina recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vila Nova and Londrina going into this match
Vila Nova record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Londrina record
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Vila Nova vs Londrina head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Vila Nova wins
2Draws
4Londrina wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Londrina | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-10 | Vila Nova | Londrina | Serie B | 4-1 |
| 2023-07-15 | Londrina | Vila Nova | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-12 | Vila Nova | Londrina | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2022-04-29 | Londrina | Vila Nova | Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2021-11-20 | Vila Nova | Londrina | Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2021-08-15 | Londrina | Vila Nova | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2019-09-27 | Londrina | Vila Nova | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2019-06-01 | Vila Nova | Londrina | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2018-10-26 | Londrina | Vila Nova | Serie B | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vila Nova vs Londrina odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.8%, draw 25.2%, away 15.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 3.66 | 5.76 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.70 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.95 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 3.66 | 5.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.59 | 3.85 | 6.42 |
| SBO | 1.57 | 3.45 | 5.03 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.40 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.57 ▲ +0.01
X
3.70 ▼ -0.05
2
5.80 ▼ -0.10
10 snapshots recorded, from .