Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 31
Botafogo SP
vs
Vila Nova
0 – 1 Full time
| 27′ | Marquinhos Gabriel | ||
| 45′ | Janderson | ||
| 61′ | Everton GaldinoEmerson | ||
| 68′ | José Hugo Sousa dos SantosWesley Santos | ||
| 68′ | Matheus SalesKelvin Giacobe·Alves dos Santos | ||
| 70′ | Hayner | ||
| 70′ | Marquinhos GabrielHigor Meritão | ||
| 70′ | André LuísLincoln | ||
| 73′ | João Pedro Vieira | ||
| 74′ | Leandro Maciel | ||
| 79′ | Ericson da Silva | ||
| 86′ | JandersonRaphael Guimarães de Paula | ||
| 86′ | João Pedro VieiraWillian Prado Camargo | ||
| 87′ | Pedro HenriqueGabriel de Souza Inocencio | ||
| 87′ | Leandro MacielArthur Caíke | ||
| 88′ | Rafael GavaThiago Henrique Moraes |
Botafogo SP
36%
Draw
30%
Vila Nova
34%
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 62 | Possession % | 38 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 377 | Accurate passes | 221 |
Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova
| Probability | Botafogo SP | Draw | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.9% | 29.4% | 42.7% |
| Market | 38.5% | 30.8% | 30.6% |
| Final | 35.9% | 30.5% | 33.6% |
| Edge | -10.6% | -1.4% | +12.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
72%
3+ goals
45%
No goals
10%
Botafogo SP and Vila Nova expected goals
Botafogo SP
1.08
Vila Nova
1.38
Total expected goals: 2.46
Botafogo SP and Vila Nova attack and defence ratings
Botafogo SP
Attack
1.03 +3%
Defence
1.23 +23%
Vila Nova
Attack
1.18 +18%
Defence
0.79 -21%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova: result vs prediction
Botafogo SP 0 – 1 Vila Nova
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo SP | 35.9% | 2.79 | -10.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo SP | 35.9% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Vila Nova | 33.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Botafogo SP win | 11.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.7% | |
| Loss | 72.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.8% |
Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova stats
Botafogo SP and Vila Nova recent form
| Botafogo SP |
WDLLLL |
| Vila Nova |
WWDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Botafogo SP and Vila Nova going into this match
Botafogo SP record
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vila Nova record
- They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
3Botafogo SP wins
1Draws
5Vila Nova wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Vila Nova | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Botafogo SP | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-20 | Vila Nova | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Vila Nova | Botafogo SP | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2024-06-16 | Botafogo SP | Vila Nova | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-12 | Vila Nova | Botafogo SP | Serie B | 3-1 |
| 2023-06-24 | Botafogo SP | Vila Nova | Serie B | 0-3 |
| 2019-09-17 | Vila Nova | Botafogo SP | Serie B | 0-2 |
| 2019-05-18 | Botafogo SP | Vila Nova | Serie B | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.5%, draw 30.8%, away 30.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.29 | 3.05 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 2.95 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.04 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.55 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| SBO | 2.35 | 2.85 | 2.81 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.40 —
X
3.00 ▼ -0.04
2
3.02 ▼ -0.02
6 snapshots recorded, from .