Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 31
Fortaleza EC
vs
Nautico Recife
1 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | Vinicius | ||
| 31′ | Lucas Xavier Gazal | ||
| 43′ | Luiz Fernando | ||
| 45′ | Samuel | ||
| 45′ | Pedro HenriqueRodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza | ||
| 51′ | Luan Sales | ||
| 58′ | Derek Freitas RibeiroBenjamín Borasi | ||
| 58′ | SamuelLuiz Felipe | ||
| 71′ | Nathan FogaçaRodrigo Oliveira dos Santos | ||
| 71′ | Lucas SashaJuan Camilo Cantillo | ||
| 71′ | Luan SalesReginaldo | ||
| 76′ | Vitor FerreiraWelliton Silva de Azevedo Matheus | ||
| 85′ | Léo ÍndioWanderson Camelo Viana | ||
| 85′ | TodinhoPaulo Sérgio | ||
| 85′ | Luiz FernandoPaulo Baya | ||
| 90′ | Wenderson da Silva Costa Ferreira |
Fortaleza EC
53%
Draw
26%
Nautico Recife
21%
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 470 | Accurate passes | 440 |
Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife
| Probability | Fortaleza EC | Draw | Nautico Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.8% | 26.4% | 19.7% |
| Market | 52.9% | 26.3% | 20.8% |
| Final | 53.1% | 26.3% | 20.5% |
| Edge | +0.9% | +0.1% | -1.0% |
Why Fortaleza EC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.94.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
75%
3+ goals
49%
No goals
8%
Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife expected goals
Fortaleza EC
1.69
Nautico Recife
0.94
Total expected goals: 2.62
Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife attack and defence ratings
Fortaleza EC
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Nautico Recife
Attack
1.14 +14%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife: result vs prediction
Fortaleza EC 1 – 1 Nautico Recife
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 53.1% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Nautico Recife | 20.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win | 30.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 46.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 2-0 | 10.3% |
Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife stats
Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife recent form
| Fortaleza EC |
DWDWWD |
| Nautico Recife |
WLDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife going into this match
Fortaleza EC record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Nautico Recife record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
4Fortaleza EC wins
1Draws
0Nautico Recife wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Nautico Recife | Fortaleza EC | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2023-02-26 | Fortaleza EC | Nautico Recife | Copa do Nordeste | 2-1 |
| 2022-03-26 | Fortaleza EC | Nautico Recife | Copa do Nordeste | 2-0 |
| 2022-02-12 | Nautico Recife | Fortaleza EC | Copa do Nordeste | 2-2 |
| 2020-03-14 | Nautico Recife | Fortaleza EC | Copa do Nordeste | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.9%, draw 26.3%, away 20.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.84 | 4.46 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.65 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.52 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.77 | 3.61 | 4.87 |
| SBO | 1.75 | 3.24 | 4.06 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.75 ▼ -0.04
X
3.52 ▲ +0.04
2
4.46 ▲ +0.01
9 snapshots recorded, from .