Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 31
Cuiaba
vs
Ponte Preta
2 – 0 Full time
| 26′ | Kauan Cristtyan Cabral do Carmo | ||
| 35′ | Jean Dias da Costa | ||
| 36′ | Juan Rodrigues Leopoldino | ||
| 45′ | Sergio Palacios | ||
| 45′ | Juan Rodrigues LeopoldinoGustavo Lopes Teles | ||
| 49′ | David Miguel de Souza Arcanjo | ||
| 49′ | Raul Lô Gonçalves | ||
| 49′ | Raul Lô Gonçalves | ||
| 60′ | Jean Dias da CostaRamon de Araujo Silva Moutinho | ||
| 60′ | Fabio GomesPedro Henrique | ||
| 61′ | Emanuell Silva FerreiraMiguel Morais Silva Santos | ||
| 71′ | Gilson Kleina | ||
| 73′ | Pedro Henrique | ||
| 74′ | David Miguel de Souza ArcanjoLuiz Otavio | ||
| 74′ | Kauan Cristtyan Cabral do CarmoVinicius Peixoto | ||
| 75′ | David da Hora | ||
| 81′ | Ramon de Araujo Silva Moutinho | ||
| 81′ | Julio De OliveiraFelipe Di Mauro Reis Coutinho | ||
| 82′ | Guilherme Brandão AzevedoDanilo | ||
| 85′ | Lorenzo Silva MartinsWeverson Rodrigues Vicente Do Nascimento |
Cuiaba
82%
Draw
13%
Ponte Preta
5%
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 0 |
| 74 | Possession % | 26 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 0 | Saves | 6 |
| 529 | Accurate passes | 152 |
Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta
| Probability | Cuiaba | Draw | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83.9% | 12.4% | 3.7% |
| Market | 80.8% | 13.3% | 5.9% |
| Final | 81.6% | 13.1% | 5.3% |
| Edge | +3.2% | -0.9% | -2.2% |
Why Cuiaba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 0.46.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cuiaba below the model: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
Cuiaba and Ponte Preta expected goals
Cuiaba
2.70
Ponte Preta
0.46
Total expected goals: 3.16
Cuiaba and Ponte Preta attack and defence ratings
Cuiaba
Attack
1.13 +13%
Defence
0.98 -2%
Ponte Preta
Attack
0.49 -51%
Defence
1.81 +81%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta: result vs prediction
Cuiaba 2 – 0 Ponte Preta
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 81.6% | 1.23 | +3.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.7% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Cuiaba win | 64.3% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 81.6% |
| Draw | 13.1% | |
| Ponte Preta | 5.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.7% |
| No | 65.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 18.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cuiaba win | 64.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 16.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 15.5% |
| 3-0 | 14.0% | |
| 1-0 | 11.0% |
Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta stats
Cuiaba and Ponte Preta recent form
| Cuiaba |
LWDWLW |
| Ponte Preta |
LWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cuiaba and Ponte Preta going into this match
Cuiaba record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Ponte Preta record
- They have won 3 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
2Cuiaba wins
2Draws
2Ponte Preta wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Ponte Preta | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2021-01-11 | Ponte Preta | Cuiaba | Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2020-10-09 | Cuiaba | Ponte Preta | Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2019-09-28 | Ponte Preta | Cuiaba | Serie B | 3-0 |
| 2019-06-01 | Cuiaba | Ponte Preta | Serie B | 1-3 |
| 2017-03-02 | Ponte Preta | Cuiaba | Copa Do Brasil | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 80.8%, draw 13.3%, away 5.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.16 | 7.75 | 17.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.17 | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.13 | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| Betano | 1.20 | 7.10 | 19.50 |
| Betfair | 1.14 | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.13 | 7.20 | 16.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.18 | 7.25 | 15.43 |
| William Hill | 1.17 | 6.50 | 15.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.17 ▲ +0.02
X
7.05 ▼ -0.03
2
15.96 ▲ +0.96
6 snapshots recorded, from .