Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 31
Athletic Club
vs
Sport Recife
1 – 2 Full time
| 14′ | Neto Pessoa | ||
| 20′ | Marlon DouglasCarlos María de Pena Bonino | ||
| 24′ | Kauan Rodrigues da Silva | ||
| 26′ | Maswel Ananias Silva | ||
| 33′ | Carlos María de Pena Bonino | ||
| 42′ | Pedro Henrique de OliveiraWilinton Aponza Carabali | ||
| 45′ | JuanPatrick de Paula Carreiro | ||
| 59′ | Yago Santos de AndradeYarlen Faustino Augusto | ||
| 65′ | Biel | ||
| 65′ | Carlos María de Pena Bonino | ||
| 70′ | Biel José Gabriel dos Santos Silva | ||
| 70′ | Neto PessoaPedro Henrique Perotti | ||
| 73′ | Kauan Gabriel Cordeiro Lindes | ||
| 73′ | João MiguelFelipe Negrucci Berdague | ||
| 73′ | Douglas da Silva SantosDixon Vera | ||
| 73′ | Enzo Henrique dos SantosOtavio Bruno Dos Santos | ||
| 90′ | Carlos María de Pena BoninoEdson Lucas Pereira |
Athletic Club
40%
Draw
28%
Sport Recife
32%
Match stats
| 29 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 7 |
| 388 | Accurate passes | 286 |
Athletic Club vs Sport Recife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Athletic Club vs Sport Recife
| Probability | Athletic Club | Draw | Sport Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.9% | 23.7% | 24.5% |
| Market | 35.7% | 29.8% | 34.5% |
| Final | 39.7% | 28.3% | 32.0% |
| Edge | +16.2% | -6.2% | -10.0% |
Why Athletic Club
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.33.
- The market prices Athletic Club below the model: +16.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
64%
No goals
5%
Athletic Club and Sport Recife expected goals
Athletic Club
1.99
Sport Recife
1.33
Total expected goals: 3.31
Athletic Club and Sport Recife attack and defence ratings
Athletic Club
Attack
1.24 +24%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Sport Recife
Attack
1.22 +22%
Defence
1.22 +22%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Athletic Club vs Sport Recife: result vs prediction
Athletic Club 1 – 2 Sport Recife
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Athletic Club vs Sport Recife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 39.7% | 2.52 | +16.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 39.7% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Sport Recife | 32.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% |
| No | 35.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win | 30.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 48.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.2% |
Athletic Club vs Sport Recife stats
Athletic Club and Sport Recife recent form
| Athletic Club |
DDWLWL |
| Sport Recife |
LWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Athletic Club and Sport Recife going into this match
Athletic Club record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Sport Recife record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club vs Sport Recife head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
1Athletic Club wins
1Draws
0Sport Recife wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Sport Recife | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Sport Recife | Athletic Club | Copa Do Brasil | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Athletic Club vs Sport Recife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.7%, draw 29.8%, away 34.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.59 | 3.41 | 2.68 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.57 | 3.12 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.71 | 3.21 | 2.79 |
| SBO | 2.56 | 2.92 | 2.52 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.59 ▲ +0.13
X
3.10 ▼ -0.10
2
2.68 ▼ -0.06
9 snapshots recorded, from .