Brazil Serie B · 2026-10-02T22:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 31

São Bernardo vs CRB

3 – 1 Full time

31′			Helder MacielMarcão Silva
51′			Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues
59′			Jemerson
60′			FoguinhoLucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva
60′			Fabrício DanielLucas Fernandes
60′			Rodrigo FerreiraHugo Sanches Nogueira Ribeiro Magalhães
64′			Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva
76′			Matheus Simonete Bressanelli
76′			Reverson PaivaLucas Lovat
76′			Daniel Sampaio SimõesVinicius Barata
76′			Eduardo·da Silva AlbuquerqueRomisson
81′			Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes
83′			Thiago Fernandes RodriguesJoao Batista da Cruz Santos Neto
87′			Alex Alves
89′			Dadá BelmonteYgor Catatau
89′			Pedro CastroGeovane
90′			Vinicius Bergantin

Estadio Primeiro de Maio, San Bernado do CampoReferee: De Moraes Silva, Matheus

São Bernardo

35%

Draw

29%

CRB

36%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

12	Shots	26
5	Shots on target	8
43	Possession %	57
5	Corners	7
11	Fouls	12
3	Offsides	2
7	Saves	2
354	Accurate passes	486

São Bernardo vs CRB overview

Garuda Lions analysis: São Bernardo vs CRB

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	São Bernardo	Draw	CRB
Model	40.6%	30.5%	28.9%
Market	33.0%	28.9%	38.1%
Final	34.9%	29.3%	35.8%
Edge	+7.6%	+1.6%	-9.2%

Confidence: Low

Why CRB

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

89%

2+ goals

69%

3+ goals

41%

No goals

11%

São Bernardo and CRB expected goals

São Bernardo

1.29

CRB

1.05

Total expected goals: 2.33

São Bernardo and CRB attack and defence ratings

São Bernardo

Attack

1.06 +6%

Defence

0.89 -11%

CRB

Attack

1.22 +22%

Defence

0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

São Bernardo vs CRB: result vs prediction

São Bernardo 3 – 1 CRB

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Brazil Serie B

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife — team news & stats · 2026-10-01
Novorizontino vs Goias · 2026-10-02
Londrina v Criciuma — match page · 2026-10-02
Juventude vs Operario-PR — team news & stats · 2026-10-02
Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife · 2026-10-03
Avai vs Ceara · 2026-10-03
Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro — team news & stats · 2026-10-03
Cuiaba v Ponte Preta — match page · 2026-10-03

Before and after this match

São Bernardo, previous: Novorizontino – São Bernardo, 2026-09-25
São Bernardo, next: Sport Recife – São Bernardo, 2026-10-06
CRB, previous: CRB vs Cuiaba: odds and pick
CRB, next: CRB vs Atletico Goianiense: odds and pick

São Bernardo vs CRB markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	CRB	35.8%	2.80	-9.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	58.7%	1.70	—	—
Both teams to score	No	51.7%	1.93	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	70.7%	1.41	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	71.1%	1.41	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	São Bernardo	34.9%
	Draw	29.3%
	CRB	35.8%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41.3%
	Under 2.5	58.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	48.3%
	No	51.7%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	64.2%
	12 (either side)	70.7%
	X2 (draw or away)	65.1%
Handicap -1	CRB win	11.5%
	Push (exactly one goal)	17.4%
	Loss	71.1%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.4%
	1-0	11.2%
	0-0	11.0%

São Bernardo vs CRB stats

São Bernardo and CRB recent form

newest first

São Bernardo	DWWLWL
CRB	WLWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

São Bernardo and CRB going into this match

league record before kick-off

São Bernardo record

They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

CRB record

They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

São Bernardo vs CRB head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

1São Bernardo wins 0Draws 0CRB wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-06-07	CRB	São Bernardo	Brazil Serie B	2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

São Bernardo vs CRB odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.0%, draw 28.9%, away 38.1%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.78	3.52	2.44
Bet365	3.10	3.00	2.45
BetVictor	2.70	3.13	2.38
Betano	2.95	3.10	2.52
Betfair	2.80	3.25	2.40
Marathonbet	2.73	3.24	2.43
Pinnacle	2.99	3.28	2.51
SBO	2.72	3.02	2.32
William Hill	2.80	3.20	2.38

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▲ +0.50

X 3.20 ▼ -0.18

2 2.43 ▼ -0.51

9 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-28T16:10:02Z.