Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 32
Nautico Recife
vs
Novorizontino
0 – 2 Full time
| 7′ | Nicolas Morês da Cruz | ||
| 14′ | Romulo Azevedo Simão | ||
| 18′ | Francisco Reidiney Duarte Gomes | ||
| 21′ | Alberto Magno Santos de Melo Filho | ||
| 25′ | Todinho | ||
| 32′ | Matheus Henrique BianquiLeonardo Naldi de Matos | ||
| 35′ | RobsonCarlos Henrique de Moura Brito | ||
| 38′ | TodinhoBenjamín Borasi | ||
| 45′ | Léo Índio | ||
| 45′ | Léo ÍndioWanderson Camelo Viana | ||
| 45′ | Derek Freitas RibeiroKauan Almeida da Costa | ||
| 45′ | Francisco Reidiney Duarte GomesHelio Cunha Borges | ||
| 59′ | Gabriel Henrique Feitosa da SilvaCarlinhos | ||
| 59′ | Nicolas Morês da CruzMaykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho | ||
| 64′ | Leonardo Naldi de Matos | ||
| 69′ | SamuelPatricio Nunez\t | ||
| 73′ | Luan SalesPaulo Sérgio |
Nautico Recife
27%
Draw
27%
Novorizontino
47%
Match stats
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 66 | Possession % | 34 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Offsides | 3 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 433 | Accurate passes | 181 |
Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino
| Probability | Nautico Recife | Draw | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.9% | 27.5% | 45.5% |
| Market | 26.5% | 26.4% | 47.2% |
| Final | 26.6% | 26.7% | 46.8% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +1.2% | -1.6% |
Why Novorizontino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
76%
3+ goals
51%
No goals
8%
Nautico Recife and Novorizontino expected goals
Nautico Recife
1.15
Novorizontino
1.56
Total expected goals: 2.71
Nautico Recife and Novorizontino attack and defence ratings
Nautico Recife
Attack
1.14 +14%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Novorizontino
Attack
1.41 +41%
Defence
0.77 -23%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino: result vs prediction
Nautico Recife 0 – 2 Novorizontino
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 46.8% | 2.14 | -1.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nautico Recife | 26.6% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Novorizontino | 46.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% |
| No | 44.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win | 23.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 54.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 9.2% |
Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino stats
Nautico Recife and Novorizontino recent form
| Nautico Recife |
DWLDLW |
| Novorizontino |
WDLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nautico Recife and Novorizontino going into this match
Nautico Recife record
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Novorizontino record
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
1Nautico Recife wins
1Draws
1Novorizontino wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Novorizontino | Nautico Recife | Brazil Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2022-10-15 | Novorizontino | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 6-0 |
| 2022-07-02 | Nautico Recife | Novorizontino | Serie B | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.5%, draw 26.4%, away 47.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.54 | 3.55 | 1.94 |
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| Betano | 3.65 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.55 | 2.06 |
| Marathonbet | 3.52 | 3.55 | 1.92 |
| Pinnacle | 3.83 | 3.61 | 1.99 |
| SBO | 2.94 | 3.09 | 2.06 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.51 ▲ +0.89
X
3.52 ▲ +0.16
2
1.97 ▼ -0.53
12 snapshots recorded, from .