Nautico Recife
vs
Vila Nova
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nautico Recife
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
| Probability | Nautico Recife | Draw | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.5% | 32.2% | 41.3% |
| Market | 39.0% | 29.5% | 31.5% |
| Final | 35.9% | 30.2% | 34.0% |
| Edge | -12.5% | +2.7% | +9.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova match preview
Nautico Recife faces Vila Nova in a Brazil Serie B matchup with Nautico having a 39% probability of winning, while Vila Nova stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Nautico, with an expected goals tally of 0.98 for Nautico and 1.15 for Vila Nova. Recent form shows Nautico with a record of D-W-L-D-L-W, while Vila Nova is in better shape, with D-W-W-W-D-W.
In their last encounter, Vila Nova emerged victorious, marking a competitive edge in their head-to-head history. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 36%, and both teams to score stands at 44%. With a confidence grade of C, this match presents an intriguing challenge for both sides as they aim to secure crucial points in the league.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nautico Recife and Vila Nova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.10
Nautico Recife and Vila Nova attack and defence ratings
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nautico Recife | 35.9% | 2.79 | -12.5% | 2.46 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nautico Recife | 35.9% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Vila Nova | 34.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.8% |
| No | 57.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nautico Recife win | 9.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.9% | |
| Loss | 73.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 13.6% | |
| 0-1 | 13.3% |
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova stats
Nautico Recife and Vila Nova recent form
| Nautico Recife |
LDWLDL |
| Vila Nova |
DWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nautico Recife and Vila Nova season so far
Nautico Recife record
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vila Nova record
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Vila Nova | Nautico Recife | Brazil Serie B | 4-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.0%, draw 29.5%, away 31.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.12 | 2.96 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.13 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.15 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.37 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.12 | 2.93 |
| Pinnacle | 2.46 | 3.21 | 2.97 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .