Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 33
Nautico Recife
vs
Vila Nova
0 – 2 Full time
| 22′ | Everton Galdino | ||
| 37′ | João Pedro Vieira | ||
| 38′ | Vinicius | ||
| 43′ | Janderson | ||
| 45′ | SamuelLuiz Felipe | ||
| 45′ | Eduardo Dos SantosHigor Meritão | ||
| 54′ | Igor Fernandes | ||
| 57′ | Gustavo HenriqueRyan Santos | ||
| 57′ | Kauan Almeida da CostaVictor Andrade | ||
| 60′ | Higor Meritão | ||
| 66′ | Luan SalesReginaldo | ||
| 69′ | Douglas Mendes | ||
| 70′ | Douglas MendesTiago Pagnussat | ||
| 70′ | João Pedro VieiraWillian Maranhão | ||
| 72′ | Willian Maranhão | ||
| 75′ | Paulo SérgioLuiz Cláudio | ||
| 80′ | Everton GaldinoEmerson | ||
| 90′ | Marquinhos GabrielNathan Camargo |
Nautico Recife
33%
Draw
30%
Vila Nova
37%
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 394 | Accurate passes | 272 |
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
| Probability | Nautico Recife | Draw | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.5% | 32.2% | 41.3% |
| Market | 34.9% | 29.9% | 35.2% |
| Final | 32.8% | 30.5% | 36.7% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +0.6% | +1.5% |
Why Vila Nova
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
86%
2+ goals
63%
3+ goals
35%
No goals
14%
Nautico Recife and Vila Nova expected goals
Nautico Recife
0.90
Vila Nova
1.19
Total expected goals: 2.10
Nautico Recife and Vila Nova attack and defence ratings
Nautico Recife
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
1.19 +19%
Vila Nova
Attack
1.04 +4%
Defence
0.66 -34%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova: result vs prediction
Nautico Recife 0 – 2 Vila Nova
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 36.7% | 2.72 | +1.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nautico Recife | 32.8% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Vila Nova | 36.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.8% |
| No | 57.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win | 18.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 58.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 13.6% | |
| 0-1 | 13.3% |
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova stats
Nautico Recife and Vila Nova recent form
| Nautico Recife |
LDWLDL |
| Vila Nova |
DWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nautico Recife and Vila Nova going into this match
Nautico Recife record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vila Nova record
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Nautico Recife wins
0Draws
5Vila Nova wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Vila Nova | Nautico Recife | Brazil Serie B | 4-3 |
| 2023-03-09 | Nautico Recife | Vila Nova | Copa Do Brasil | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-20 | Nautico Recife | Vila Nova | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2022-05-06 | Vila Nova | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2021-09-11 | Vila Nova | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2021-06-15 | Nautico Recife | Vila Nova | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2017-11-18 | Nautico Recife | Vila Nova | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2017-08-01 | Vila Nova | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2016-08-27 | Vila Nova | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 0-2 |
| 2016-05-18 | Nautico Recife | Vila Nova | Serie B | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.9%, draw 29.9%, away 35.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.58 | 3.12 | 2.65 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.77 | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.25 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.58 | 3.12 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.84 | 3.19 | 2.69 |
| SBO | 2.57 | 3.01 | 2.45 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.67 ▲ +0.49
X
3.11 ▼ -0.06
2
2.64 ▼ -0.55
8 snapshots recorded, from .