Fortaleza EC
vs
CRB
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fortaleza EC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Fortaleza EC vs CRB overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortaleza EC vs CRB
| Probability | Fortaleza EC | Draw | CRB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.9% | 29.5% | 25.6% |
| Market | 52.8% | 26.6% | 20.6% |
| Final | 50.8% | 27.3% | 21.9% |
| Edge | -7.9% | +3.0% | +4.9% |
Why Fortaleza EC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 1.00.
Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Fortaleza EC vs CRB match preview
Fortaleza EC faces CRB in a Brazil Serie B matchup on October 12, 2026. According to our model, Fortaleza EC has a 51% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 27% and CRB at 22%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Fortaleza, with expected goals of 1.40 for Fortaleza and 1.00 for CRB.
Recent form shows Fortaleza EC with a record of W-D-D-W-D-W, while CRB has struggled, recording W-L-W-L-W-L. In their last three encounters, Fortaleza EC has secured 1 win and 2 draws against CRB, who have yet to claim a victory in this series. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the forecasts.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fortaleza EC and CRB expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Fortaleza EC and CRB attack and defence ratings
Fortaleza EC
CRB
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fortaleza EC vs CRB markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 50.8% | 1.97 | -7.9% | 1.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 50.8% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| CRB | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.8% |
| No | 51.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 55.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 10.4% |
Fortaleza EC vs CRB stats
Fortaleza EC and CRB recent form
| Fortaleza EC |
WDDWDW |
| CRB |
WLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortaleza EC and CRB season so far
Fortaleza EC record
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
CRB record
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Fortaleza EC vs CRB head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | CRB | Fortaleza EC | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-14 | CRB | Fortaleza EC | Copa Do Brasil | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Fortaleza EC | CRB | Copa Do Brasil | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortaleza EC vs CRB odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 26.6%, away 20.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.50 | 4.45 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.45 | 4.55 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.82 | 3.65 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.50 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.63 | 4.55 |
| SBO | 1.70 | 3.21 | 4.01 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .