Sport Recife
vs
Fortaleza EC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sport Recife
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC
| Probability | Sport Recife | Draw | Fortaleza EC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.6% | 29.5% | 30.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 39.6% | 29.5% | 30.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sport Recife
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC match preview
Sport Recife faces Fortaleza EC in the Brazil Serie B with a matchup that sees Sport Recife holding a 40% probability of winning, while Fortaleza EC has a 31% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Sport Recife, which aligns with expected goals of 1.33 for Sport Recife and 1.15 for Fortaleza EC. Recent form shows Sport Recife with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Fortaleza EC has been more consistent with four wins and two draws.
In their last three encounters, Sport Recife has not secured a win, recording two losses and one draw against Fortaleza EC. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 45%, and there is a 52% chance that both teams will score in this match. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.49
Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC attack and defence ratings
Sport Recife
Fortaleza EC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Recife | 39.6% | 2.53 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Recife | 39.6% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Fortaleza EC | 30.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% |
| No | 48.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Recife win | 18.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 60.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | |
| 0-0 | 9.6% |
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC stats
Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC recent form
| Sport Recife |
WWLWLW |
| Fortaleza EC |
WDDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC season so far
Sport Recife record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza EC record
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Fortaleza EC | Sport Recife | Brazil Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Fortaleza EC | Sport Recife | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-26 | Sport Recife | Fortaleza EC | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.