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Brazil Serie B · Full time ·Matchday 34

Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC

0 – 2 Full time

13′Marcelo Ajul
19′Maurício Mucuri
27′Mariano Andrés Soso
44′Tomás Cardona
45′Marcelo Ajul
45′Tomás Cardona
45′Biel
45′Maurício MucuriKaio Henrique
45′Biel José Gabriel dos Santos Silva
54′Juan Camilo CantilloPedro Henrique
58′Jailson Siqueira
59′Raí Lopes de OliveiraEdson Lucas Pereira
59′Diego·HernandezMarlon Douglas
59′Pedro Henrique PerottiNeto Pessoa
66′Tomás CardonaLucas Xavier Gazal
69′Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza
79′Willian OliveiraCarlos María de Pena Bonino
80′Jailson Siqueira
83′Nerisronald falkoski
83′Luiz FernandoWelliton Silva de Azevedo Matheus
83′Habraão Lincon do Nascimento SaraivaKervin Andrade
90′Rodrigo Henrique Santos De SouzaRodrigo Oliveira dos Santos

Ilha do Retiro, RecifeReferee: Andre Luiz Skettino Policarpo Bento

Sport Recife 39%
Draw 29%
Fortaleza EC 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 9
2 Shots on target 4
52 Possession % 48
11 Corners 3
15 Fouls 19
2 Offsides 0
2 Saves 2
321 Accurate passes 306

Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySport RecifeDrawFortaleza EC
Model42.2%28.3%29.5%
Market38.0%29.2%32.8%
Final39.0%28.9%32.0%
Edge+1.0%-0.2%-0.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Sport Recife

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sport Recife ↓ / Fortaleza EC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 7% 1 9% 14% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC expected goals

Sport Recife 1.46
Fortaleza EC 1.18

Total expected goals: 2.64

Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC attack and defence ratings

Sport Recife

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Fortaleza EC

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC: result vs prediction

Sport Recife 0 – 2 Fortaleza EC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 34 fixtures

Brazil Serie B

Before and after this match

Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sport Recife 39.0% 2.56 +1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.8% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.5% 1.84 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.1% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 57.8% 1.73 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sport Recife39.0%
Draw28.9%
Fortaleza EC32.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.2%
Under 2.550.8%
Both teams to scoreYes54.5%
No45.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.0%
12 (either side)71.1%
X2 (draw or away)61.0%
Handicap -1Sport Recife win21.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.1%
Loss57.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.5%
1-09.2%
2-19.0%

Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC stats

Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC recent form

newest first
Sport Recife DWWLWL
Fortaleza EC DWDDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Sport Recife record

  • They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fortaleza EC record

  • They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Sport Recife wins 2Draws 7Fortaleza EC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-28Fortaleza ECSport RecifeBrazil Serie B2-1
2026-05-28Sport RecifeFortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste0-2
2026-05-21Fortaleza ECSport RecifeCopa do Nordeste1-2
2026-04-30Fortaleza ECSport RecifeCopa do Nordeste2-0
2025-09-27Fortaleza ECSport RecifeBrazil Serie A1-0
2025-04-26Sport RecifeFortaleza ECBrazil Serie A0-0
2025-02-05Sport RecifeFortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste0-2
2024-05-26Sport RecifeFortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste1-4
2024-02-22Sport RecifeFortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste1-1
2022-04-03Fortaleza ECSport RecifeCopa do Nordeste1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.3%, draw 28.9%, away 32.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.40 3.22 2.84
Bet365 2.60 3.10 2.80
BetVictor 2.40 3.10 2.70
Betano 2.40 3.15 3.00
Betfair 2.40 3.30 2.80
Dafabet 2.40 3.25 3.05
Marathonbet 2.38 3.22 2.81
Pinnacle 2.57 3.39 2.81
SBO 2.23 2.97 2.75
William Hill 2.45 3.10 2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.42 ▲ +0.13
X 3.16 ▼ -0.08
2 2.80 ▼ -0.16

8 snapshots recorded, from .