Ponte Preta
vs
Fortaleza EC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fortaleza EC
0 – 2 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 0.51.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Fortaleza EC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC
| Probability | Ponte Preta | Draw | Fortaleza EC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.6% | 18.3% | 75.1% |
| Market | 7.9% | 16.1% | 76.0% |
| Final | 7.6% | 16.7% | 75.8% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +0.6% | -0.2% |
Why Fortaleza EC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 0.51.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (our 75.8% × 1.25 − 1).
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC match preview
Ponte Preta faces Fortaleza EC in a Brazil Serie B match on October 24, 2026. Ponte Preta has struggled recently, with a form record of D-L-L-L-L-W, while Fortaleza EC comes in with a stronger performance, recording W-D-W-D-D-W. According to our model, the probabilities for the match show Ponte Preta at 7%, a draw at 18%, and Fortaleza EC at 75%. The expected goals for Ponte Preta are 0.51, compared to Fortaleza EC's 2.16, suggesting a significant advantage for the visitors.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, occurring with a 16% probability. Additionally, there is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, while both teams scoring has a 36% likelihood. In their last head-to-head encounter, Fortaleza EC secured a win against Ponte Preta, who has yet to record a victory against them.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ponte Preta and Fortaleza EC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Ponte Preta and Fortaleza EC attack and defence ratings
Ponte Preta
Fortaleza EC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 75.8% | 1.32 | -0.2% | 1.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 92.4% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ponte Preta | 7.6% |
| Draw | 16.7% | |
| Fortaleza EC | 75.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.2% |
| No | 63.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 24.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 92.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win | 51.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 24.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 16.1% |
| 0-1 | 14.1% | |
| 0-3 | 11.7% |
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC stats
Ponte Preta and Fortaleza EC recent form
| Ponte Preta |
DLLLLW |
| Fortaleza EC |
WDWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ponte Preta and Fortaleza EC season so far
Ponte Preta record
- They have won 3 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Fortaleza EC record
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Fortaleza EC | Ponte Preta | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 7.9%, draw 16.2%, away 75.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 11.70 | 5.75 | 1.22 |
| Bet365 | 15.00 | 6.25 | 1.18 |
| BetVictor | 12.00 | 5.50 | 1.18 |
| Betano | 11.75 | 5.40 | 1.25 |
| Betfair | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 |
| Dafabet | 13.00 | 6.20 | 1.24 |
| Marathonbet | 11.75 | 5.75 | 1.21 |
| Pinnacle | 11.34 | 5.67 | 1.24 |
| SBO | 8.49 | 4.84 | 1.22 |
| William Hill | 11.00 | 5.00 | 1.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .