Sport Recife
vs
Criciuma
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sport Recife
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Sport Recife vs Criciuma overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sport Recife vs Criciuma
| Probability | Sport Recife | Draw | Criciuma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.8% | 30.1% | 24.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 45.8% | 30.1% | 24.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sport Recife
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.93.
Sport Recife vs Criciuma match preview
Sport Recife faces Criciuma in a Brazil Serie B match with a kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Sport Recife has a 46% probability of winning, while Criciuma stands at 24%, and a draw is estimated at 30%. The expected goals for Sport Recife are 1.37, compared to Criciuma's 0.93. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 12% probability.
In terms of recent form, Sport Recife's last six matches show a record of L-D-W-W-L-W, while Criciuma has a mixed record of W-L-W-W-L-L. The likelihood of both teams scoring is 46%, and there is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. The last head-to-head encounter saw Criciuma winning, with Sport Recife yet to secure a victory against them.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sport Recife and Criciuma expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Sport Recife and Criciuma attack and defence ratings
Sport Recife
Criciuma
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sport Recife vs Criciuma markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Recife | 45.8% | 2.18 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Recife | 45.8% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Criciuma | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.4% |
| No | 53.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Recife win | 22.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 54.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.3% |
Sport Recife vs Criciuma stats
Sport Recife and Criciuma recent form
| Sport Recife |
LDWWLW |
| Criciuma |
WLWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sport Recife and Criciuma season so far
Sport Recife record
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Criciuma record
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Sport Recife vs Criciuma head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Criciuma | Sport Recife | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.