Criciuma
vs
Ponte Preta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Criciuma
2 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.58.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Criciuma is the favourite, not a value bet.
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Criciuma vs Ponte Preta
| Probability | Criciuma | Draw | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.9% | 19.9% | 8.2% |
| Market | 88.7% | 8.0% | 3.2% |
| Final | 84.5% | 11.0% | 4.5% |
| Edge | -4.2% | +3.0% | +1.3% |
Why Criciuma
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.08, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.7% per unit staked (our 84.5% × 1.08 − 1).
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta match preview
Criciuma enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 75%, while Ponte Preta's chances stand at just 6%. The expected goals for Criciuma are 2.11, significantly higher than Ponte Preta's 0.47, indicating a potential dominance in offensive play. Recent form shows Criciuma has won three of their last six matches, while Ponte Preta has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings.
In their most recent head-to-head encounter, Criciuma secured a victory, further tilting the odds in their favor. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with a 17% probability. Additionally, there's a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, while both teams scoring is estimated at 33%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Criciuma and Ponte Preta expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Criciuma and Ponte Preta attack and defence ratings
Criciuma
Ponte Preta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Criciuma | 84.5% | 1.18 | -4.2% | 1.08 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.5% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Criciuma win | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Criciuma | 84.5% |
| Draw | 11.0% | |
| Ponte Preta | 4.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.5% |
| No | 60.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 89.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 15.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Criciuma win | 47.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 28.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 15.1% |
| 1-0 | 13.6% | |
| 3-0 | 10.5% |
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta stats
Criciuma and Ponte Preta recent form
| Criciuma |
LWWLWW |
| Ponte Preta |
DDLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Criciuma and Ponte Preta season so far
Criciuma record
- They have won 17 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Ponte Preta record
- They have won 3 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Ponte Preta | Criciuma | Brazil Serie B | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 88.7%, draw 8.0%, away 3.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.03 | 11.70 | 32.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.06 | 8.50 | 21.00 |
| Betano | 1.08 | 9.25 | 26.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.08 | 12.00 | 29.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.03 | 11.75 | 32.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.06 | 12.42 | 27.89 |
| William Hill | 1.07 | 11.00 | 29.00 |