Athletic Club
vs
Ceara
Garuda Lions Prediction: Athletic Club
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.08.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Athletic Club is the favourite, not a value bet.
Athletic Club vs Ceara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Athletic Club vs Ceara
| Probability | Athletic Club | Draw | Ceara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.2% | 28.4% | 26.4% |
| Market | 39.0% | 30.1% | 31.0% |
| Final | 40.5% | 29.7% | 29.8% |
| Edge | +1.5% | -0.4% | -1.1% |
Why Athletic Club
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.08.
Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.1% per unit staked (our 40.5% × 2.47 − 1).
Athletic Club vs Ceara match preview
Athletic Club faces Ceara in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a slight edge for the home side, with Athletic Club at 45%, a draw at 28%, and Ceara at 26%. The most likely scoreline projected by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Athletic Club recording L-D-D-L-L-D and Ceara at L-D-L-W-W-D.
The expected goals indicate Athletic Club is anticipated to score 1.48, while Ceara is projected at 1.08. There is a 47% probability for over 2.5 goals, and both teams scoring stands at 52%. The head-to-head record shows one draw and no wins for either side in their last encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Athletic Club and Ceara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
Athletic Club and Ceara attack and defence ratings
Athletic Club
Ceara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Athletic Club vs Ceara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 40.5% | 2.47 | +1.5% | 2.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 40.5% |
| Draw | 29.7% | |
| Ceara | 29.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Athletic Club vs Ceara stats
Athletic Club and Ceara recent form
| Athletic Club |
LDDLLD |
| Ceara |
LDLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Athletic Club and Ceara season so far
Athletic Club record
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Ceara record
- They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club vs Ceara head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Ceara | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Athletic Club vs Ceara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.0%, draw 30.1%, away 31.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.15 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.41 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.30 | 3.15 | 2.99 |
| Pinnacle | 2.47 | 3.05 | 3.10 |
| SBO | 2.26 | 2.89 | 2.76 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .