Ceara
vs
America Mineiro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ceara
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.91.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ceara is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ceara vs America Mineiro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ceara vs America Mineiro
| Probability | Ceara | Draw | America Mineiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.3% | 31.7% | 26.0% |
| Market | 55.9% | 25.3% | 18.8% |
| Final | 52.5% | 26.9% | 20.6% |
| Edge | -3.4% | +1.6% | +1.8% |
Why Ceara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.91.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.8% per unit staked (our 52.5% × 1.70 − 1).
Ceara vs America Mineiro match preview
Ceara and America Mineiro are set to clash in the Brazil Serie B on November 8, 2026. According to our model, Ceara has a 45% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 32% and America Mineiro at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Ceara, with an expected goals tally of 1.26 for Ceara and 0.85 for America Mineiro.
Recent form shows Ceara with a record of L-D-L-W-W-D, while America Mineiro has experienced a mix of results with W-W-W-L-L-L. In their last head-to-head encounter, Ceara and America Mineiro played to a draw, with Ceara having no wins against America Mineiro in their last matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ceara and America Mineiro expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
Ceara and America Mineiro attack and defence ratings
Ceara
America Mineiro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 37 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ceara vs America Mineiro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ceara | 52.5% | 1.91 | -3.4% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ceara | 52.5% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| America Mineiro | 20.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.6% |
| No | 56.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ceara win | 19.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 57.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | |
| 0-0 | 13.1% |
Ceara vs America Mineiro stats
Ceara and America Mineiro recent form
| Ceara |
LLDLWW |
| America Mineiro |
WWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ceara and America Mineiro season so far
Ceara record
- They have won 11 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 35 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
America Mineiro record
- They have won 6 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 35 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ceara vs America Mineiro head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | America Mineiro | Ceara | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ceara vs America Mineiro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.9%, draw 25.3%, away 18.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 3.64 | 5.03 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 3.64 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 3.74 | 5.09 |
| SBO | 1.61 | 3.39 | 4.29 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .