Goias
vs
Ponte Preta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Goias
2 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 0.47.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Goias is the favourite, not a value bet.
Goias vs Ponte Preta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Goias vs Ponte Preta
| Probability | Goias | Draw | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81.2% | 14.3% | 4.5% |
| Market | 83.6% | 11.4% | 4.9% |
| Final | 83.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +0.7% | -0.1% |
Why Goias
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 0.47.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.14, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (our 83.0% × 1.14 − 1).
Goias vs Ponte Preta match preview
Goias enters this match against Ponte Preta with a strong probability of winning at 79%, reflecting their recent form of W-D-W-W-L-L. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 2.33 for Goias compared to just 0.46 for Ponte Preta. The home side has shown resilience, having won their last encounter against Ponte Preta, who are struggling with a form of L-D-D-L-L-L.
Ponte Preta's chances of securing a victory are considerably lower at 5%, as they have not won in their last six matches. The likelihood of both teams scoring is estimated at 34%, while the probability of the match featuring over 2.5 goals stands at 53%. With Goias' recent performance and head-to-head advantage, they appear to be in a favorable position heading into this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Goias and Ponte Preta expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Goias and Ponte Preta attack and defence ratings
Goias
Ponte Preta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 37 fixtures
- Operario-PR vs Sport Recife — team news & stats
- Avai v São Bernardo — match page
- Novorizontino v Fortaleza EC — match page
- Vila Nova vs Criciuma
- Cuiaba v Juventude — match page
- Nautico Recife vs CRB
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense — team news & stats
- Ceara vs America Mineiro — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Goias vs Ponte Preta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Goias | 83.0% | 1.20 | -0.6% | 1.14 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.2% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Goias win | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Goias | 83.0% |
| Draw | 12.2% | |
| Ponte Preta | 4.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.2% |
| No | 64.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 17.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Goias win | 59.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 18.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 16.0% |
| 3-0 | 13.3% | |
| 1-0 | 12.1% |
Goias vs Ponte Preta stats
Goias and Ponte Preta recent form
| Goias |
WWDWWL |
| Ponte Preta |
LDDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Goias and Ponte Preta season so far
Goias record
- They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ponte Preta record
- They have won 3 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Goias vs Ponte Preta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Ponte Preta | Goias | Brazil Serie B | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Goias vs Ponte Preta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 83.6%, draw 11.4%, away 4.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.09 | 8.20 | 19.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.12 | 7.50 | 19.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.08 | 7.50 | 18.00 |
| Betano | 1.14 | 7.40 | 16.50 |
| Betfair | 1.10 | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.12 | 8.80 | 22.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.09 | 8.20 | 19.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.12 | 9.00 | 19.34 |
| William Hill | 1.12 | 8.00 | 19.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .