Avai
vs
São Bernardo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Avai
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Avai is the favourite, not a value bet.
Avai vs São Bernardo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Avai vs São Bernardo
| Probability | Avai | Draw | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.8% | 32.2% | 43.0% |
| Market | 38.8% | 29.7% | 31.5% |
| Final | 35.3% | 30.4% | 34.3% |
| Edge | -3.5% | +0.6% | +2.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.5% per unit staked (our 35.3% × 2.45 − 1).
Avai vs São Bernardo match preview
Avai faces São Bernardo in a Brazil Serie B clash with Avai holding a 43% probability of winning, while São Bernardo has a 28% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Avai, with a 9% likelihood. Expected goals are calculated at 0.86 for Avai and 1.21 for São Bernardo, indicating a slight edge for the visitors in offensive potential.
In terms of recent form, Avai has recorded two losses, one draw, and two wins in their last five matches, while São Bernardo has performed better with three wins, one draw, and one loss. The head-to-head record shows Avai has not secured a victory against São Bernardo in their last encounter, which ended in a draw. Overall, the confidence grade for this matchup is rated at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Avai and São Bernardo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
Avai and São Bernardo attack and defence ratings
Avai
São Bernardo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 37 fixtures
- Operario-PR vs Sport Recife — team news & stats
- Novorizontino v Fortaleza EC — match page
- Vila Nova vs Criciuma
- Cuiaba v Juventude — match page
- Nautico Recife vs CRB
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense — team news & stats
- Ceara vs America Mineiro — team news & stats
- Goias vs Ponte Preta — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Avai vs São Bernardo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avai | 35.3% | 2.83 | -3.5% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avai | 35.3% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| São Bernardo | 34.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.8% |
| No | 58.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Avai win | 8.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.2% | |
| Loss | 75.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-1 | 14.0% | |
| 0-0 | 13.9% |
Avai vs São Bernardo stats
Avai and São Bernardo recent form
| Avai |
LLDWWL |
| São Bernardo |
WWLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Avai and São Bernardo season so far
Avai record
- They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
São Bernardo record
- They have won 13 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avai vs São Bernardo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | São Bernardo | Avai | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Avai vs São Bernardo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.8%, draw 29.7%, away 31.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.12 | 2.96 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.12 | 2.93 |
| Pinnacle | 2.44 | 3.18 | 2.98 |
| SBO | 2.30 | 2.95 | 2.66 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .