Cuiaba
vs
São Bernardo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cuiaba
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Cuiaba vs São Bernardo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cuiaba vs São Bernardo
| Probability | Cuiaba | Draw | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.8% | 31.7% | 27.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.8% | 31.7% | 27.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Cuiaba vs São Bernardo match preview
Cuiaba faces São Bernardo in a Brazil Serie B matchup with Cuiaba holding a 41% probability of winning, while a draw is at 32% and São Bernardo at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Cuiaba, with a 13% likelihood. Expected goals for Cuiaba stand at 1.22, compared to São Bernardo's 0.95, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Cuiaba has recorded two losses, a draw, and two wins in their last five matches, while São Bernardo has one win, two losses, a draw, and another win in their recent outings. The head-to-head record shows that in their last encounter, Cuiaba and São Bernardo drew, with neither team securing a win. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cuiaba and São Bernardo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Cuiaba and São Bernardo attack and defence ratings
Cuiaba
São Bernardo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cuiaba vs São Bernardo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 40.8% |
| Draw | 31.7% | |
| São Bernardo | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.6% |
| No | 55.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cuiaba win | 18.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 59.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 12.7% | |
| 1-0 | 12.6% |
Cuiaba vs São Bernardo stats
Cuiaba and São Bernardo recent form
| Cuiaba |
LLDWLW |
| São Bernardo |
WLDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cuiaba and São Bernardo season so far
Cuiaba record
- They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
São Bernardo record
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Cuiaba vs São Bernardo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | São Bernardo | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.