America Mineiro
vs
Cuiaba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cuiaba
0 – 1 Predicted score · 19% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.99 vs 0.61.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cuiaba is the favourite, not a value bet.
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: America Mineiro vs Cuiaba
| Probability | America Mineiro | Draw | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.9% | 36.7% | 42.4% |
| Market | 25.7% | 28.0% | 46.3% |
| Final | 24.5% | 30.2% | 45.3% |
| Edge | -1.2% | +2.2% | -1.0% |
Why Cuiaba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.99 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (our 45.3% × 2.07 − 1).
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba match preview
America Mineiro faces Cuiaba in a Brazil Serie B matchup on October 26, 2026. According to our model, America Mineiro has a 19% chance of winning, while Cuiaba is favored with a 45% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Cuiaba, which aligns with their expected goals of 1.07 compared to America Mineiro's 0.60.
Recent form shows America Mineiro struggling with six consecutive losses, while Cuiaba has a mixed record with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. In their last three head-to-head encounters, America Mineiro has not secured a win, recording one draw and two losses against Cuiaba. The model indicates a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% likelihood of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
America Mineiro and Cuiaba expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.61
America Mineiro and Cuiaba attack and defence ratings
America Mineiro
Cuiaba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 45.3% | 2.21 | -1.0% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America Mineiro | 24.5% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Cuiaba | 45.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 21.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 78.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.1% |
| No | 69.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cuiaba win | 17.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 57.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 21.3% |
| 0-1 | 18.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba stats
America Mineiro and Cuiaba recent form
| America Mineiro |
WLLLLL |
| Cuiaba |
LLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
America Mineiro and Cuiaba season so far
America Mineiro record
- They have won 4 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cuiaba record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Cuiaba | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-16 | America Mineiro | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-24 | Cuiaba | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.7%, draw 28.0%, away 46.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.97 |
| Bet365 | 3.80 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.13 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.65 | 3.45 | 2.07 |
| Marathonbet | 3.58 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.45 | 3.61 | 2.04 |
| SBO | 3.28 | 2.94 | 1.99 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .