São Bernardo
vs
Vila Nova
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vila Nova
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Vila Nova is the favourite, not a value bet.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
| Probability | São Bernardo | Draw | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.8% | 32.2% | 37.0% |
| Market | 33.2% | 30.4% | 36.4% |
| Final | 32.6% | 30.9% | 36.5% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +0.4% | +0.1% |
Why Vila Nova
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (our 36.5% × 2.62 − 1).
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova match preview
São Bernardo faces Vila Nova in a Brazil Serie B matchup, with the probabilities indicating a closely contested game. São Bernardo has a 34% chance of winning, while Vila Nova is slightly favored at 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1 in favor of Vila Nova, occurring with a 12% likelihood. Expected goals suggest São Bernardo will score 1.01, while Vila Nova is projected to net 1.13.
In terms of recent form, São Bernardo has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Vila Nova has been in strong form, remaining unbeaten with four wins and a draw in the same period. The teams have met once recently, with Vila Nova securing a victory. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
São Bernardo and Vila Nova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
São Bernardo and Vila Nova attack and defence ratings
São Bernardo
Vila Nova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 36.5% | 2.74 | +0.1% | 2.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | São Bernardo | 32.6% |
| Draw | 30.9% | |
| Vila Nova | 36.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.4% |
| No | 55.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win | 15.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 63.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.1% | |
| 0-1 | 11.9% |
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova stats
São Bernardo and Vila Nova recent form
| São Bernardo |
LDLWDW |
| Vila Nova |
DWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
São Bernardo and Vila Nova season so far
São Bernardo record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Vila Nova record
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Vila Nova | São Bernardo | Brazil Serie B | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.0%, draw 30.5%, away 36.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.76 | 2.95 | 2.60 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 3.05 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.15 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.76 | 2.95 | 2.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.89 | 3.06 | 2.62 |
| SBO | 2.74 | 2.88 | 2.28 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .