Vila Nova
vs
Juventude
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vila Nova
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.04.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Vila Nova vs Juventude overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vila Nova vs Juventude
| Probability | Vila Nova | Draw | Juventude |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.6% | 29.1% | 26.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.6% | 29.1% | 26.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Vila Nova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.04.
Vila Nova vs Juventude match preview
Vila Nova faces Juventude in a Brazil Serie B matchup with Vila Nova holding a 45% probability of winning, compared to Juventude's 26%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Vila Nova, with an 11% chance of occurring. Expected goals for Vila Nova stand at 1.42, while Juventude is at 1.04, indicating a slight edge for the home side in offensive output.
Recent form shows Vila Nova with a record of L-D-W-D-W-W, while Juventude has a mixed performance of D-D-W-W-W-L. In their last head-to-head encounter, Juventude secured a victory, with Vila Nova yet to register a win against them. The overall confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vila Nova and Juventude expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Vila Nova and Juventude attack and defence ratings
Vila Nova
Juventude
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vila Nova vs Juventude markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 44.6% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Juventude | 26.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% |
| No | 49.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 55.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | |
| 0-0 | 9.8% |
Vila Nova vs Juventude stats
Vila Nova and Juventude recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vila Nova and Juventude season so far
Vila Nova record
- They have won 18 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Juventude record
- They have won 17 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 22 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Vila Nova vs Juventude head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Juventude | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.