Fortaleza EC
vs
Atletico Goianiense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fortaleza EC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.85.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Fortaleza EC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense
| Probability | Fortaleza EC | Draw | Atletico Goianiense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.3% | 29.9% | 21.8% |
| Market | 45.2% | 28.3% | 26.5% |
| Final | 46.0% | 28.7% | 25.3% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +0.4% | -1.2% |
Why Fortaleza EC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.85.
Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (our 46.0% × 2.11 − 1).
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense match preview
Fortaleza EC will host Atletico Goianiense in a Brazil Serie B clash on November 2, 2026. According to our model, Fortaleza EC has a 48% probability of winning, while Atletico Goianiense stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Fortaleza, with an expected goals tally of 1.39 for Fortaleza and 0.85 for Atletico Goianiense. Recent form shows Fortaleza with a series of draws and one win, while Atletico has a mixed record with two wins and three draws in their last six matches.
In their last encounter, Atletico Goianiense emerged victorious, marking a competitive history between the two teams. The probability of a draw is noted at 29%, and there is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. Additionally, both teams to score has a probability of 44%, indicating a potentially tight contest.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense attack and defence ratings
Fortaleza EC
Atletico Goianiense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 46.0% | 2.17 | +0.8% | 2.11 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 46.0% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Atletico Goianiense | 25.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.4% |
| No | 55.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 51.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense stats
Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense recent form
| Fortaleza EC |
DWDWDD |
| Atletico Goianiense |
LDDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense season so far
Fortaleza EC record
- They have won 16 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Atletico Goianiense record
- They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Atletico Goianiense | Fortaleza EC | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.2%, draw 28.3%, away 26.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.30 | 3.64 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.11 | 3.40 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.97 | 3.30 | 3.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.34 | 3.60 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 3.06 | 3.14 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .