Novorizontino
vs
Fortaleza EC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Novorizontino
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.81.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Novorizontino is the favourite, not a value bet.
Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC
| Probability | Novorizontino | Draw | Fortaleza EC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.1% | 26.2% | 16.7% |
| Market | 50.9% | 27.5% | 21.6% |
| Final | 52.5% | 27.2% | 20.4% |
| Edge | +1.5% | -0.3% | -1.2% |
Why Novorizontino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.9% per unit staked (our 52.5% × 1.85 − 1).
Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC match preview
Novorizontino hosts Fortaleza EC in a Brazil Serie B clash, with Novorizontino holding a 53% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Novorizontino stand at 1.69, while Fortaleza EC is projected to score 0.81. Recent form favors Novorizontino, who have won their last six matches, compared to Fortaleza EC's run of three draws and two wins in their last five games.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Novorizontino, occurring with a 13% probability. Both teams have a 46% chance of scoring, and there is a 46% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. In their last head-to-head encounter, Novorizontino has yet to secure a win against Fortaleza EC, who claimed victory in their previous matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Novorizontino and Fortaleza EC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Novorizontino and Fortaleza EC attack and defence ratings
Novorizontino
Fortaleza EC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 37 fixtures
Before and after this match
Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 52.5% | 1.91 | +1.5% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 52.5% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Fortaleza EC | 20.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.5% |
| No | 53.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win | 32.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 42.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.7% |
| 1-1 | 12.4% | |
| 2-0 | 11.7% |
Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC stats
Novorizontino and Fortaleza EC recent form
| Novorizontino |
WWDWWW |
| Fortaleza EC |
DDWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Novorizontino and Fortaleza EC season so far
Novorizontino record
- They have won 18 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza EC record
- They have won 16 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Fortaleza EC | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.9%, draw 27.5%, away 21.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.44 | 4.46 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.85 | 3.55 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.75 | 3.44 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.51 | 4.69 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.02 | 3.63 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .