Cuiaba
vs
Juventude
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juventude
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.99.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Juventude is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cuiaba vs Juventude overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cuiaba vs Juventude
| Probability | Cuiaba | Draw | Juventude |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.7% | 30.4% | 43.0% |
| Market | 22.9% | 28.0% | 49.1% |
| Final | 23.8% | 28.6% | 47.6% |
| Edge | +0.9% | +0.6% | -1.5% |
Why Juventude
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (our 47.6% × 2.00 − 1).
Cuiaba vs Juventude match preview
Cuiaba faces Juventude in the Brazil Serie B with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Cuiaba's last five matches resulted in four losses and one draw, while Juventude has been more successful, recording two wins and three draws. The probabilities indicate that Juventude has a 47% chance of winning, compared to Cuiaba's 25%, with a draw at 29%.
The expected goals suggest a competitive match, with Cuiaba projected to score 0.99 and Juventude 1.32. Our model predicts the most likely scoreline to be 0-1 in favor of Juventude, occurring with a 12% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance that both teams will score. The head-to-head record shows Cuiaba with four wins, Juventude with one, and four matches ending in draws over their last nine encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cuiaba and Juventude expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
Cuiaba and Juventude attack and defence ratings
Cuiaba
Juventude
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 37 fixtures
- Operario-PR vs Sport Recife — team news & stats
- Avai v São Bernardo — match page
- Novorizontino v Fortaleza EC — match page
- Vila Nova vs Criciuma
- Nautico Recife vs CRB
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense — team news & stats
- Ceara vs America Mineiro — team news & stats
- Goias vs Ponte Preta — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Cuiaba vs Juventude markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventude | 47.6% | 2.10 | -1.5% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 23.8% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Juventude | 47.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.4% |
| No | 52.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventude win | 20.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 57.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 11.8% | |
| 0-0 | 11.2% |
Cuiaba vs Juventude stats
Cuiaba and Juventude recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cuiaba and Juventude season so far
Cuiaba record
- They have won 11 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Juventude record
- They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 23 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Cuiaba vs Juventude head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Juventude | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-23 | Juventude | Cuiaba | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-05 | Cuiaba | Juventude | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2022-08-13 | Cuiaba | Juventude | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-24 | Juventude | Cuiaba | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2021-09-11 | Juventude | Cuiaba | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2021-05-29 | Cuiaba | Juventude | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2021-01-06 | Cuiaba | Juventude | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2020-10-06 | Juventude | Cuiaba | Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cuiaba vs Juventude odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.9%, draw 28.0%, away 49.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.06 | 3.34 | 1.88 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.25 | 1.90 |
| BetVictor | 4.10 | 3.10 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 4.05 | 3.35 | 1.91 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 4.20 | 3.40 | 1.94 |
| Marathonbet | 4.05 | 3.34 | 1.86 |
| Pinnacle | 4.14 | 3.50 | 1.86 |
| SBO | 3.83 | 2.98 | 1.82 |
| William Hill | 3.70 | 3.10 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .