Garuda Lions
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Brazil Serie B · ·Matchday 37

Vila Nova vs Criciuma

Garuda Lions Prediction: Vila Nova

1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.90.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Vila Nova is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Vila Nova

Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, GoianiaReferee: Bruno Arleu

Vila Nova 44%
Draw 30%
Criciuma 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Vila Nova wins
44%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
89%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
47%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
13% of simulated outcomes

Vila Nova vs Criciuma overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Vila Nova vs Criciuma

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVila NovaDrawCriciuma
Model49.6%28.8%21.6%
Market41.8%29.8%28.4%
Final43.7%29.5%26.7%
Edge+2.0%-0.2%-1.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Vila Nova

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.90.

Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.2% per unit staked (our 43.7% × 2.29 − 1).

Vila Nova vs Criciuma match preview

Vila Nova faces Criciuma in a Brazil Serie B match with Vila Nova holding a 44% probability of winning, while Criciuma has a 27% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Vila Nova, with an expected goals tally of 1.48 for Vila Nova and 0.90 for Criciuma. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 42%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 47%.

In terms of recent form, Vila Nova has recorded two draws, a win, and two more draws in their last five matches, while Criciuma has a mixed record with three wins and two losses in the same span. Historically, the last 10 encounters show Vila Nova with 1 win, 5 draws, and Criciuma with 4 wins, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Vila Nova ↓ / Criciuma → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 7% 1 13% 14% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 11%

Vila Nova and Criciuma expected goals

Vila Nova 1.48
Criciuma 0.90

Total expected goals: 2.38

Vila Nova and Criciuma attack and defence ratings

Vila Nova

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Criciuma

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 37 fixtures

Brazil Serie B

Before and after this match

Vila Nova vs Criciuma markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Vila Nova 43.7% 2.29 +2.0% 2.29
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.5% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score No 53.0% 1.89 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 73.3% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.4% 1.98 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Vila Nova43.7%
Draw29.5%
Criciuma26.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.5%
Under 2.557.5%
Both teams to scoreYes47.0%
No53.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.3%
12 (either side)70.5%
X2 (draw or away)56.3%
Handicap -1Vila Nova win25.7%
Push (exactly one goal)23.9%
Loss50.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.5%
1-012.5%
0-010.5%
Compare prices for this pick

Vila Nova vs Criciuma stats

Vila Nova and Criciuma recent form

newest first
Vila Nova DLDWDW
Criciuma WLWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Vila Nova and Criciuma season so far

league record

Vila Nova record

  • They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Criciuma record

  • They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vila Nova vs Criciuma head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Vila Nova wins 5Draws 4Criciuma wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-18CriciumaVila NovaBrazil Serie B2-0
2025-10-03Vila NovaCriciumaBrazil Serie B1-1
2025-06-09CriciumaVila NovaBrazil Serie B1-0
2023-08-23CriciumaVila NovaSerie B1-0
2023-05-12Vila NovaCriciumaSerie B0-0
2022-10-04Vila NovaCriciumaSerie B1-0
2022-06-25CriciumaVila NovaSerie B1-0
2019-10-01Vila NovaCriciumaSerie B1-1
2019-06-08CriciumaVila NovaSerie B1-1
2018-11-17Vila NovaCriciumaSerie B2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Vila Nova vs Criciuma odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 29.8%, away 28.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.22 3.14 3.22
Bet365 2.25 3.00 3.25
BetVictor 2.15 3.10 3.13
Betano 2.27 3.10 3.30
Betfair 2.25 3.10 3.25
Dafabet 2.29 3.15 3.40
Marathonbet 2.20 3.14 3.20
Pinnacle 2.19 3.18 3.44
SBO 2.16 2.92 2.90
William Hill 2.20 3.00 3.30
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.21 ▼ -0.03
X 3.10 ▲ +0.02
2 3.25 ▼ -0.05

7 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Vila Nova Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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