Athletic Club
vs
Atletico Goianiense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Goianiense
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atletico Goianiense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense
| Probability | Athletic Club | Draw | Atletico Goianiense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.6% | 32.0% | 32.3% |
| Market | 23.7% | 26.9% | 49.4% |
| Final | 26.7% | 28.2% | 45.2% |
| Edge | +3.0% | +1.3% | -4.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.7% per unit staked (our 45.2% × 1.91 − 1).
Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense match preview
Athletic Club faces Atletico Goianiense in a Brazil Serie B match on November 8, 2026. According to our model, both teams have a 35% chance of winning, with a 31% probability of a draw. The expected goals for both teams are equal at 1.17, indicating a potentially balanced contest. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%.
Recent form shows Athletic Club struggling with five matches without a win, while Atletico Goianiense has improved, winning two of their last three matches. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Athletic Club has not secured a win, recording two draws and one loss against Atletico Goianiense. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 42%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 49%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Athletic Club and Atletico Goianiense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Athletic Club and Atletico Goianiense attack and defence ratings
Athletic Club
Atletico Goianiense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 37 fixtures
Before and after this match
Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Goianiense | 45.2% | 2.21 | -4.3% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 26.7% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Atletico Goianiense | 45.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.2% |
| No | 54.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Goianiense win | 13.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 67.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 12.7% | |
| 1-0 | 11.4% |
Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense stats
Athletic Club and Atletico Goianiense recent form
| Athletic Club |
WLDDLL |
| Atletico Goianiense |
DLDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Athletic Club and Atletico Goianiense season so far
Athletic Club record
- They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Atletico Goianiense record
- They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Atletico Goianiense | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-04 | Athletic Club | Atletico Goianiense | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-07 | Atletico Goianiense | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.7%, draw 26.9%, away 49.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.86 | 3.44 | 1.89 |
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 3.50 | 1.87 |
| Dafabet | 4.10 | 3.55 | 1.91 |
| Marathonbet | 3.84 | 3.44 | 1.87 |
| Pinnacle | 4.18 | 3.70 | 1.83 |
| SBO | 3.59 | 3.11 | 1.82 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .