Novorizontino
vs
Operario-PR
Garuda Lions Prediction: Novorizontino
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 0.67.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Novorizontino vs Operario-PR overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Novorizontino vs Operario-PR
| Probability | Novorizontino | Draw | Operario-PR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.6% | 16.9% | 7.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 75.6% | 16.9% | 7.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Novorizontino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Novorizontino vs Operario-PR match preview
Novorizontino enters this matchup with a strong probability of winning at 76%, reflecting their recent form of W-D-W-W-W-D. They are expected to score an average of 2.43 goals, with the most likely scoreline being 2-0 at 13%. In contrast, Operario-PR has struggled lately, with a record of W-L-L-L-L-D, and an expected goals figure of just 0.67.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 60%, indicating a potential for a high-scoring game, while both teams to score is estimated at 45%. In their last three encounters, Novorizontino has secured 1 win, while Operario-PR has won 2, showcasing a competitive history despite the current form disparity.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Novorizontino and Operario-PR expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.10
Novorizontino and Operario-PR attack and defence ratings
Novorizontino
Operario-PR
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Novorizontino vs Operario-PR markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.4% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 75.6% |
| Draw | 16.9% | |
| Operario-PR | 7.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.2% |
| No | 54.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win | 53.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 24.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.3% |
| 3-0 | 10.8% | |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
Novorizontino vs Operario-PR stats
Novorizontino and Operario-PR recent form
| Novorizontino |
WDWWWD |
| Operario-PR |
WLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Novorizontino and Operario-PR season so far
Novorizontino record
- They have won 17 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Operario-PR record
- They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Novorizontino vs Operario-PR head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Operario-PR | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Novorizontino | Operario-PR | Brazil Serie B | 3-0 |
| 2025-06-23 | Operario-PR | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.