Botafogo SP
vs
Sport Recife
Garuda Lions Prediction: Botafogo SP
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.97.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife
| Probability | Botafogo SP | Draw | Sport Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.9% | 28.7% | 23.4% |
| Market | 38.7% | 29.3% | 31.9% |
| Final | 41.0% | 29.2% | 29.8% |
| Edge | +2.3% | -0.2% | -2.1% |
Why Botafogo SP
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Botafogo SP below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.5% per unit staked (our 41.0% × 2.45 − 1).
Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife match preview
Botafogo SP and Sport Recife are set to face off in a Brazil Serie B match, with kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Botafogo SP has a 48% chance of winning, while Sport Recife stands at 23%, and a draw is predicted at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Botafogo SP, with an expected goals tally of 1.49 for them and 0.97 for Sport Recife.
Recent form shows Botafogo SP with four wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Sport Recife has two wins, one draw, and three losses in the same period. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 44%, and both teams are predicted to score at a rate of 49%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Botafogo SP and Sport Recife expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.46
Botafogo SP and Sport Recife attack and defence ratings
Botafogo SP
Sport Recife
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo SP | 41.0% | 2.44 | +2.3% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo SP | 41.0% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Sport Recife | 29.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.3% |
| No | 50.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Botafogo SP win | 24.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.8% |
Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife stats
Botafogo SP and Sport Recife recent form
| Botafogo SP |
WWWWLW |
| Sport Recife |
WLDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Botafogo SP and Sport Recife season so far
Botafogo SP record
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sport Recife record
- They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Sport Recife | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 29.3%, away 31.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.18 | 2.92 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.13 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.15 | 2.92 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.18 | 2.89 |
| Pinnacle | 2.44 | 3.22 | 2.98 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.80 |