Botafogo SP
vs
Londrina
Garuda Lions Prediction: Botafogo SP
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.86.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Botafogo SP is the favourite, not a value bet.
Botafogo SP vs Londrina overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Botafogo SP vs Londrina
| Probability | Botafogo SP | Draw | Londrina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.1% | 26.2% | 17.7% |
| Market | 54.2% | 25.2% | 20.6% |
| Final | 54.7% | 25.4% | 19.9% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +0.3% | -0.7% |
Why Botafogo SP
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.7% per unit staked (our 54.7% × 1.78 − 1).
Botafogo SP vs Londrina match preview
Botafogo SP enters this match with a solid recent form, having recorded four wins in their last six games, while Londrina struggles, with only one win in their last six outings. The model gives Botafogo SP a 55% probability of winning, with an expected goals tally of 1.69 compared to Londrina's 0.86. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring with a 12% likelihood.
In their last seven encounters, Botafogo SP has a favorable record against Londrina, securing three wins and three draws, while Londrina has managed just one victory. The model suggests a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% probability that both teams will score, indicating a competitive match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Botafogo SP and Londrina expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Botafogo SP and Londrina attack and defence ratings
Botafogo SP
Londrina
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 37 fixtures
- Operario-PR vs Sport Recife — team news & stats
- Avai v São Bernardo — match page
- Novorizontino v Fortaleza EC — match page
- Vila Nova vs Criciuma
- Cuiaba v Juventude — match page
- Nautico Recife vs CRB
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense — team news & stats
- Ceara vs America Mineiro — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Botafogo SP vs Londrina markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo SP | 54.7% | 1.83 | +0.5% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo SP | 54.7% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Londrina | 19.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.1% |
| No | 51.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Botafogo SP win | 31.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 43.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 12.1% | |
| 2-0 | 11.2% |
Botafogo SP vs Londrina stats
Botafogo SP and Londrina recent form
| Botafogo SP |
DWWWWL |
| Londrina |
LLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Botafogo SP and Londrina season so far
Botafogo SP record
- They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Londrina record
- They have won 8 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
Botafogo SP vs Londrina head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Londrina | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2023-11-25 | Botafogo SP | Londrina | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2023-07-24 | Londrina | Botafogo SP | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2019-11-16 | Londrina | Botafogo SP | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2019-08-20 | Botafogo SP | Londrina | Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2013-08-04 | Londrina | Botafogo SP | Serie D | 0-0 |
| 2013-07-20 | Botafogo SP | Londrina | Serie D | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Botafogo SP vs Londrina odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.2%, draw 25.2%, away 20.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 3.68 | 4.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.74 | 3.75 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 3.68 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.76 | 4.87 |
| SBO | 1.66 | 3.42 | 4.26 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .