Nautico Recife
vs
Avai
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nautico Recife
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.75.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Nautico Recife vs Avai overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nautico Recife vs Avai
| Probability | Nautico Recife | Draw | Avai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.6% | 33.6% | 22.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.6% | 33.6% | 22.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nautico Recife
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.75.
Nautico Recife vs Avai match preview
Nautico Recife faces Avai in a Brazil Serie B matchup, with Nautico Recife holding a 44% probability of winning, while Avai stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Nautico Recife, occurring with a 16% likelihood. Both teams have struggled recently, with Nautico Recife recording two wins in their last six matches and Avai winning two of their last six.
In terms of expected goals, Nautico Recife is forecasted to score 1.14, while Avai is expected to net 0.75. The probabilities indicate a 34% chance of a draw and a 37% likelihood that both teams will score. The recent head-to-head record shows Avai with one win and Nautico Recife yet to secure a victory against them.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nautico Recife and Avai expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.89
Nautico Recife and Avai attack and defence ratings
Nautico Recife
Avai
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nautico Recife vs Avai markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nautico Recife | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nautico Recife | 43.6% |
| Draw | 33.6% | |
| Avai | 22.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.2% |
| No | 62.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nautico Recife win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 56.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.4% |
| 1-0 | 16.0% | |
| 1-1 | 14.2% |
Nautico Recife vs Avai stats
Nautico Recife and Avai recent form
| Nautico Recife |
DLLDWL |
| Avai |
LDWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nautico Recife and Avai season so far
Nautico Recife record
- They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avai record
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nautico Recife vs Avai head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Avai | Nautico Recife | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.