Juventude
vs
Nautico Recife
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juventude
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.71.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Juventude is the favourite, not a value bet.
Juventude vs Nautico Recife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Juventude vs Nautico Recife
| Probability | Juventude | Draw | Nautico Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.7% | 24.2% | 13.0% |
| Market | 61.9% | 22.9% | 15.2% |
| Final | 62.1% | 23.2% | 14.7% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +0.3% | -0.5% |
Why Juventude
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (our 62.1% × 1.53 − 1).
Juventude vs Nautico Recife match preview
Juventude enters the match with a 63% probability of winning, supported by their recent form of two wins and a draw in the last three matches. The expected goals for Juventude stand at 1.81, indicating a strong offensive performance, while Nautico Recife is projected to score 0.71 goals. Nautico Recife's recent form shows a mix of results, with two losses and a draw in their last three matches, contributing to their 13% probability of winning.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Juventude, occurring at a 13% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 44% probability that both teams will find the net. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Juventude and Nautico Recife expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Juventude and Nautico Recife attack and defence ratings
Juventude
Nautico Recife
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Juventude vs Nautico Recife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventude | 62.1% | 1.61 | +0.2% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Juventude win | 37.6% | 2.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventude | 62.1% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Nautico Recife | 14.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.6% |
| No | 56.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventude win | 37.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 37.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.5% |
| 2-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-1 | 11.4% |
Juventude vs Nautico Recife stats
Juventude and Nautico Recife recent form
| Juventude |
DDWWWL |
| Nautico Recife |
DLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Juventude and Nautico Recife season so far
Juventude record
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 22 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Nautico Recife record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventude vs Nautico Recife head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Nautico Recife | Juventude | Brazil Serie B | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Juventude vs Nautico Recife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.6%, draw 23.1%, away 15.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 4.05 | 6.18 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 3.90 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 3.95 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.52 | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.48 | 4.05 | 6.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.36 |
| SBO | 1.45 | 3.62 | 5.42 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .