Goias
vs
Nautico Recife
Garuda Lions Prediction: Goias
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Goias vs Nautico Recife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Goias vs Nautico Recife
| Probability | Goias | Draw | Nautico Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.6% | 27.9% | 20.5% |
| Market | 53.3% | 26.1% | 20.6% |
| Final | 52.9% | 26.5% | 20.6% |
| Edge | -1.7% | +1.8% | -0.1% |
Why Goias
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.77, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Goias vs Nautico Recife match preview
Goias hosts Nautico Recife in a Brazil Serie B clash with a predicted win probability of 51% for Goias, while Nautico Recife stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, occurring with a 12% probability. Goias has shown solid recent form with three wins in their last six matches, while Nautico Recife has struggled, recording two losses and two draws in the same period.
In terms of expected goals, Goias is forecasted to score 1.56, compared to Nautico Recife's 0.90. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 45%, and both teams scoring is projected at 48%. Historically, Goias has a favorable record against Nautico Recife, winning their last encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Goias and Nautico Recife expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.46
Goias and Nautico Recife attack and defence ratings
Goias
Nautico Recife
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Goias vs Nautico Recife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Goias | 52.9% | 1.89 | -1.7% | 1.77 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Goias | 52.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Nautico Recife | 20.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.0% |
| No | 52.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Goias win | 27.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 48.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | |
| 2-0 | 10.4% |
Goias vs Nautico Recife stats
Goias and Nautico Recife recent form
| Goias |
WWLLWW |
| Nautico Recife |
LLDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Goias and Nautico Recife season so far
Goias record
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nautico Recife record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Goias vs Nautico Recife head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Nautico Recife | Goias | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Goias vs Nautico Recife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.3%, draw 26.1%, away 20.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 3.54 | 4.45 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.65 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.77 | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.54 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 3.68 | 4.72 |
| SBO | 1.71 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .