Juventude
vs
São Bernardo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juventude
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Juventude vs São Bernardo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Juventude vs São Bernardo
| Probability | Juventude | Draw | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.9% | 30.3% | 17.8% |
| Market | 61.0% | 24.5% | 14.6% |
| Final | 58.7% | 25.9% | 15.4% |
| Edge | -9.1% | +5.8% | +3.2% |
Why Juventude
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Juventude vs São Bernardo match preview
Juventude will host São Bernardo in a Brazil Serie B match on October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 43% probability of a Juventude victory, while a draw is estimated at 32% and a São Bernardo win at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Juventude, with a 14% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Juventude is projected to score 1.22, compared to São Bernardo's 0.86.
Recent form shows Juventude with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while São Bernardo has a stronger record of four wins, a draw, and one loss. In their last encounter, Juventude secured a win, further supporting their favorable head-to-head record with one victory and no losses against São Bernardo.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Juventude and São Bernardo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
Juventude and São Bernardo attack and defence ratings
Juventude
São Bernardo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Juventude vs São Bernardo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventude | 58.7% | 1.70 | -9.1% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventude | 58.7% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| São Bernardo | 15.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.8% |
| No | 61.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventude win | 26.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 48.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.1% |
| 0-0 | 13.8% | |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
Juventude vs São Bernardo stats
Juventude and São Bernardo recent form
| Juventude |
WWWLLW |
| São Bernardo |
LWDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Juventude and São Bernardo season so far
Juventude record
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 21 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
São Bernardo record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Juventude vs São Bernardo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | São Bernardo | Juventude | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Juventude vs São Bernardo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.0%, draw 24.5%, away 14.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 3.84 | 6.39 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 3.70 | 6.60 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.55 | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 3.84 | 6.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 3.89 | 6.86 |
| SBO | 1.49 | 3.47 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.60 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .